Georgia runoff tests Democrats' hopes in deep-red district

ALPHARETTA, Ga. — Voters in a north Atlanta suburb will decide Tuesday between Debra Shigley, a Democrat, and Jason Dickerson, a Republican, in a runoff for Georgia Senate District 21. Neither candidate won a majority in August’s special election, in which Shigley captured 40% of the vote in the deep-red district. The seat is vacant after former Republican state Sen. Brandon Beach was drafted by President Donald Trump to serve as state treasurer; Beach won more than 70% of the vote in 2024.

Dickerson, an investment company president, is self-funding a traditional conservative campaign, promising to lower taxes and support stricter immigration policies. Shigley, a lawyer and small-business owner who lives on a farm with her husband and five children, says she wants to reduce the cost of living for working families. She previously ran in 2024 against Republican state House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones and lost.

The race has drawn national attention as Democrats hope to flip seats amid frustration with President Trump’s policies. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin traveled to Georgia to campaign with Shigley on Saturday in Alpharetta. Republicans are lining up behind Dickerson, who came in second in August with 17.4% of the vote and is self-funding a campaign.

Analysts note that turnout is a major variable in this low-turnout environment, and Shigley faces an uphill path in a district that leans strongly Republican. Brian Robinson, a Georgia Republican political strategist, said that with one Republican opponent instead of six, it is unlikely Shigley will win, and Democrats generally perform well in low-turnout races like the August special election. Still, Shigley and her supporters argue that August’s turnout reflected voters’ fatigue with the chaos surrounding national politics, and they expect a similar energy on Tuesday.

Shigley’s supporters say volunteers have surged again as they mobilize for a broader push beyond the district, noting the energy around the 2026 races for governor, U.S. senator and other offices could benefit down-ballot organizing.

The seat’s vacancy stems from Beach’s departure to be treasurer. Beach won more than 70% of the vote in 2024, underscoring the district’s conservative tilt. The current face-off remains a barometer for whether Democrats can translate targeted gains into tangible wins in the Legislature.

Data from The Downballot tracking 40 special elections nationwide since Trump took office show that on average, Democrats performed 15.1 percentage points better than former Vice President Kamala Harris did as a presidential candidate in 2024. Democrats flipped a Pennsylvania state Senate seat in March and two Iowa state Senate seats in January and August, signaling some momentum but also illustrating how local dynamics can diverge from national trends.

Charles Bullock III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, said it remains unclear whether races like Shigley’s foreshadow broader gains in 2026. The outcome will depend on national sentiment toward Trump and how many seats Democrats can flip across the country, as well as turnout numbers in contest-specific races.