Kirk assassination highlights surge in left-wing violence, CSIS finds 2025 on pace for 30-year high
CSIS tracks 750 incidents since 1994; left-wing violence now outnumbers right-wing for the first time in decades; experts urge calm and lawful response as investigations continue.
Conservative activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 10 while addressing a crowd at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Prosecutors have charged 22-year-old Tyler Robinson with murder and firearms offenses in the slaying.
The incident comes as a CSIS study tracks a rise in left-wing political violence this year. The Center for Strategic and International Studies counted roughly 750 terrorist incidents in the United States from 1994 through July 2025, and the report projects that 2025 could be the left’s most violent year in more than three decades. For the first time in more than 30 years, left-wing attacks and plots outnumber those attributed to the far right.
The CSIS study notes that the shift is driven largely by attacks on government facilities and plots aimed at high-profile conservative figures, though analysts caution that the lethality of left-wing violence remains low compared with past spikes in other ideologies. Notable incidents cited in the year include a July 4 confrontation at a federal facility in Alvarado, Texas, where gunfire and graffiti followed an ICE Prairieland Detention Facility and several suspects face federal charges for attempted murder of officers and firearms offenses. In January, Capitol Police arrested Riley Jane English, 24, on the National Mall, with a folding knife, two Molotov cocktails and threats against top Republicans, including the secretary of war and the speaker. In March, arsonists targeted the Republican Party of New Mexico headquarters, leaving graffiti that read 'ICE = KKK.'
The study contrasts these incidents with the ongoing, high-lethality threats tied to other eras and movements, noting that left-wing violence has, to date, caused far fewer deaths than the worst years for right-wing or jihadist violence. Since 2020, only two people have been killed in left-wing attacks—one in Portland in 2020 and another in 2024, according to CSIS.
The investigation into Kirk’s death and related cases has highlighted questions about political violence and security. Federal prosecutors have described the case against Luigi Mangione as politically motivated after Mangione was charged with murder, stalking and firearms offenses; a judge later threw out the terrorism charges. The Department of Justice has signaled that it intends to pursue politically motivated violence cases vigorously, while acknowledging the broader trend identified by CSIS.
Experts warn that the lull in lethality for left-wing violence could be temporary and that the historical pattern shows right-wing extremism can surge again. CSIS researchers caution that sweeping crackdowns on nonviolent groups risk fueling more extremism, and they urge leaders to condemn violence on their own side and to call for calm when violence emerges, regardless of ideology.
As the Kirk case and related investigations unfold, authorities and researchers say a vigilant, evidence-based approach is essential to prevent further harm while respecting civil liberties.
The broader message from CSIS and public-safety officials is that violence on any side has consequences beyond immediate harm, potentially amplifying division and undermining democratic norms.
