MAGA at a crossroads: polling dips, tariffs and long-range planning test Trump's hold on power

WASHINGTON — The MAGA movement's grip on power is facing renewed strain as Donald Trump enters his second term with a tariff policy that critics say has reshaped the political calculus. Gallup's latest snapshot puts Trump's approval at 36% with 60% disapproval, a second-term low behind only Richard Nixon during Watergate; Ronald Reagan, by contrast, was at +41 at a similar point in his presidency.

Polls also reflect a fracturing coalition. Among Black voters, support for Trump has fallen from 24% to 13%; among Hispanic voters, support has dropped from 40% to 34%. Pew Research Center found 70% disapprove of Trump's performance, and 78% view the economy negatively. The 2024 election produced a historic shift in the electorate and the White House hoped for a lasting cross-cutting coalition, but the early post-election period has underscored vulnerabilities in core constituencies.

Pollsters note the economy as the main drag. 'The economy stung after the tariff announcement,' one veteran pollster said, adding that the costs of living have become a new fulcrum of public opinion. Independent young men have become more skeptical over time, with a drop in favorable views from February to October. Analysts emphasize that Trump's appeal may hinge as much on his persona as on policy, but the practical effects of price increases and the affordability crunch have real consequences for voter behavior.

On Capitol Hill and in MAGA circles, the split has grown louder. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a vocal ally, labeled Trump a 'traitor' after breaking with him, illustrating a fracturing inner circle. Some observers say the core 'America First' base remains intact, but the ability to recruit a successor who can replicate Trump's personal magnetic appeal is uncertain as the movement experiences growing questions about its long-term viability.

Behind the scenes, planning for a long MAGA arc is intensifying. The America First Policy Institute, which drafted proposals during the 2024 campaign, has moved into a building on Pennsylvania Avenue near the White House and is coordinating research and talent development for post-2028 efforts. A senior executive recently said the aim is 'thinking not even five years down the road, this is about thinking 100 years down the road.'

Equally influential is the Rockbridge Network, co-founded by J.D. Vance. The network sits at the intersection of MAGA, Silicon Valley and Wall Street and counts roughly 200 members with dues ranging from $100,000 to $1 million. Its output includes investment vehicles like 1789 Capital, which backs anti-woke companies, and it oversees five groups focused on financing right-wing investigative reporting, polling, turnout operations in battleground states and mobilizing churchgoers. Rockbridge's influence is palpable in the 2024 cycle: its affiliated super PAC, Turnout for America, spent about $34.5 million. Members and donors from Rockbridge have attended summits with senior administration figures, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and other officials as the network positions itself to back Vance and deter non-MAGA challengers.

Vance has emerged as a favored successor within MAGA circles, with Rockbridge and allied groups wagering on a continuity of the movement beyond Trump's tenure. The network's resources could be deployed to sustain a MAGA-aligned coalition, including funding polls, turnout activities, and church-based activism through groups like The Faithful in Action.

Looking ahead, observers say Trump's fate in 2028 and beyond will depend on more than red-meat messaging. 'Stop listening to social media pundits—it's the economy, stupid,' quipped one Republican strategist, underscoring the consensus that affordability and real-cost-of-living concerns will determine long-term viability for MAGA leaders, including any successor. If Trump or a chosen heir cannot ease inflation, housing costs, healthcare and fuel prices, the coalition may fracture further even as supporters cling to the personality and energy that defined his rise.

Notwithstanding the challenges, MAGA leadership remains hopeful that the 2028 election will be a proving ground for the movement's ability to institutionalize itself beyond a single figure. The emergence of alternative leadership, most notably J.D. Vance, along with organizational machinery like Rockbridge and the America First Policy Institute, signals a deliberate attempt to extend the 'America First' agenda for a decade or more. The question remains whether a successor can recreate the cross-cutting appeal that carried Trump to power and whether the coalition can shore up turnout while maintaining affordability as the center of gravity for voters across demographics.