Mamdani Leads NYC Mayor Race in Fox News Poll as Voters Seek Change

New York City voters say they are unhappy with the direction of the city, and a Fox News poll shows Democrat Zohran Mamdani leading the mayoral race by a wide margin. Among registered voters, Mamdani has 45% support, Cuomo 27%, Curtis Sliwa 11%, and incumbent Eric Adams 8%. Among likely voters, Mamdani leads 47% to 29% for Cuomo, 11% for Sliwa, and 7% for Adams. Conducted Sept. 18-22, 2025, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, the poll surveyed 1,003 NYC registered voters, with a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. The likely-voter subsample included 814 respondents and carried a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. Voters say 62% are dissatisfied with the direction the city is headed, and about three-quarters want substantial, dramatic, or revolutionary change in how the city’s government is run.

Support patterns show Mamdani's appeal across demographics, while Cuomo holds stronger support among some groups. Mamdani's best-performing groups include very liberal voters (79%), those under age 35 (61%), women under 45 (60%), Democrats (57%), and Black and Hispanic voters (49% each). Cuomo collects the strongest support from Jewish voters (40%), White voters ages 45 and up (37%), voters 65 and older (33%), and moderates (31%). Republicans prefer Sliwa (41%), while independents are split: 26% Mamdani, 23% Cuomo, and 14% each for Adams and Sliwa.

Mamdani’s lead extends to voters who want major change in city government. Three-quarters of voters want substantial (37%), dramatic (20%), or revolutionary (18%) changes, and Mamdani is favored among those who want at least substantial change as well as those who are dissatisfied with the city’s trajectory. His backers also appear more enthusiastic about voting: 63% are certain they will vote for him, and 83% are confident they will back him. By comparison, Cuomo’s backers are less enthusiastic (32% enthusiastic) but broadly committed (65% certain); 59% say their vote is for Cuomo rather than against his opponents (39%).

Voters cite crime, the cost of living, and affordable housing as the top NYC problems. Crime is cited by 25% as the main issue, followed by the cost of living (20%) and the lack of affordable housing (17%). The issue mix differs by party: 50% of Republicans and 29% of independents say crime is the top concern, while Democrats distribute concerns across costs (23%), crime (19%), and housing (19%). Cuomo is narrowly favored among those who prioritize crime, while Mamdani holds a wide lead among those who prioritize the cost of living (+40 points) and housing (+41 points).

Voters also expressed views on tax policy. About seven in ten NYC voters say raising taxes would cause a mass exodus of businesses and people, leaving the city cash-strapped. At the same time, about seven in ten back higher taxes on residents earning more than $1 million annually. The responses cut across party lines, with broad acknowledgment that higher taxes on the wealthy must be paired with measures to maintain city services and economic vitality.

On broader political cues, the survey tested popularity of named figures. Bernie Sanders is the most favorable figure tested (61%), followed by Gov. Kathy Hochul (53%), Mamdani (50%), Cuomo (45%), Adams (29%), Sliwa (28%), and former President Donald Trump (24%).

On immigration and the Middle East, only 3% mention illegal immigration as the top problem. Among policy options, 67% favor deporting those charged with crimes but allowing others to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship. On the Middle East, more voters back the Palestinians (46%) than the Israelis (38%), a tilt that aligns with Mamdani’s position on Israel and Cuomo’s more supportive stance toward Israel. Jewish voters favor Cuomo (40%) more than Mamdani (27%) or Adams (12%).

Twice as many NYC voters say the way Republicans talk about politics is leading to an increase in violence (68%) as feel the same about Democrats (32%). Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to think their opponents’ rhetoric fuels violence, while independents are more likely to cite Republican rhetoric as dangerous.

The poll was conducted September 18-22, 2025, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). It includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 New York City registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (150) and cellphones (598) or completed the survey online by following a link received via text message (255). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. There was a subsample of 814 likely voters and the margin of sampling error was ±3.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.

Source links: Fox News – All: Fox News Poll: Unhappy with NYC's direction, voters favor Mamdani for mayor by a wide margin