New Jersey governor race remains tied as Ciattarelli and Sherrill trade leads

New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest remains a near-even fight, with Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill in a dead heat in a new poll released this week. Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill found both candidates at 43% in a survey conducted for an off-year election, underscoring how tightly contested the race has become in a blue-leaning state. An internal Ciattarelli campaign poll released earlier put the Republican ahead 46% to 45%, illustrating how volatile the race remains and how closely outside groups are watching the race.

The snapshot also highlighted public sentiment toward the outgoing governor, with Phil Murphy’s approval hovering in the mid-30s. Voters prioritized the economy and crime as top issues, a combination that tends to favor Ciattarelli and GOP-aligned messages nationwide as the general election approaches. The results suggest a campaign dynamic in which both candidates have viable paths to victory, pending how turnout and messaging evolve in the coming months.

Observers say national party involvement could be pivotal, given the size and reach of New Jersey’s media market and the political geography of the state. Campaign strategists say outside help could come in several forms: increased fundraising to fuel advertising across New Jersey and adjacent media markets in New York City and Philadelphia, more staff and volunteers to mobilize voters, and coordinated messaging from allied groups.

The Democratic National Committee has already amplified its investment in Sherrill, doubling spending for the Jersey race to about $3 million—the most the party has devoted to a New Jersey candidate in an off-year contest. On the GOP side, Restore New Jersey, a super PAC backed by the Republican Governors Association, has pledged at least $1 million for advertising as it seeks to widen Ciattarelli’s reach. Political operatives on both sides say national committees could contribute far more, given the race’s potential to shift control of the governor’s office and shape the political narrative heading into 2026.

Historical context in the state underscores the challenge for Republicans even as Ciattarelli pursues a path to victory. Garden Staters have not backed a Republican for president since 1988 and have not elected a Republican U.S. senator in roughly half a century. They did elect Gov. Chris Christie twice in the 2000s and Christine Todd Whitman twice in the 1990s, reflecting a willingness to vote for Republican candidates in statewide races under certain conditions. In the 2020 presidential election, about 45% of New Jersey voters backed Donald Trump, illustrating a nuanced political landscape where state outcomes can diverge from national trends.

As the race moves deeper into the fall, Ciattarelli’s campaign argues that the contest remains highly competitive and that substantial outside support could tilt the balance. Sherrill’s backers note the House member’s incumbency advantage and the general climate of voter concerns about the economy and public safety, suggesting the outcome will hinge on turnout and the effectiveness of targeted messaging across diverse media markets in the state.