Poll: Immigration focus could shape 2028 bid as Trump leads on the issue

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 19-21 found that Donald Trump has a notable advantage on immigration, a potential foundation for a continued push as Republicans ponder a 2028 bid. The survey of 1,016 Americans shows 42 percent support Trump’s immigration stance, compared with 26 percent who back President Joe Biden on the same issue. The poll also notes that support for Trump’s mass deportation policies reached as high as 50 percent briefly earlier this year, a momentary spike that underscores how immigration remains a focal point for the party.

The findings come as Trump’s overall job-approval rating has fluctuated. In the latest reading, his overall approval sits in the low 40s, with 41 to 42 percent in recent weeks, down from 42 percent three weeks earlier. The poll also highlights that the Trump administration has pursued tariffs on a broad slate of countries, a policy context that has coincided with rising inflation and a tighter labor market.

On economic matters, respondents again show mixed sentiment but assign greater credibility to Republicans on several key issues. Trump is viewed as more trustworthy than Biden on the economy, though the gap is not wide, and a majority of respondents remain concerned about the economy's direction; 54 percent say the economy is on the wrong track, up from 52 percent in July. Inflation has accelerated, and unemployment rose to 4.3 percent in August, a level not seen in nearly four years. Those macro conditions help explain why the president’s overall standing remains fragile even as immigration becomes a dominant talking point for GOP strategists.

The poll also sketches broad partisan dynamics across a range of issues. Across eleven topics, Americans say Republicans lead on seven, reinforcing a narrative that the GOP maintains advantages on national security, crime, and foreign affairs. In the most high-profile matchup emphasized by the survey, the economy and immigration are still the most important voting issues, and on those fronts Americans by a clear margin say the GOP is better positioned to handle them than Democrats.

Alyssa Farah Griffin, who previously served as White House Director of Strategic Communications under Trump, weighed in on a recent episode of The View, arguing that the president would win if the election were held today due to voters’ perceptions of the top issues. “If the election were re-held today, Donald Trump would win by the same if not a bigger margin,” she said, citing the poll’s trajectory on issue-specific trust.

Beyond immigration and the economy, the survey finds that Democrats maintain strength on other fronts. Americans say Democrats retain the edge on respect for democracy, healthcare, women’s rights, and the environment, even as Republicans hold leads on crime, foreign conflicts, gun control, political extremism, and corruption. The divergent issue profiles illustrate a political landscape where gains on one set of issues do not automatically translate into broad, uniform support for either party.

Analysts caution that it is still early in the cycle and that polling dynamics can swing as candidates outline policy proposals and respond to unfolding events. A separate betting market analysis earlier in the year had identified a different trajectory for political strength, and many forecasters expect Republicans to lose their narrow House majority in the 2026 midterms while retaining control of the Senate. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, while informative, reflects a moment in time and should be interpreted alongside other surveys and political developments as 2028 begins to take shape.