Poll shows Republicans maintain edge on economy, crime and immigration ahead of midterms

A Washington Post/IPSOS poll released this week shows Republicans maintain a lead over Democrats on which party voters trust to handle three core issues—the economy, crime and immigration—raising questions about Democrats’ prospects in next year’s midterm elections. CNN analyst Harry Enten summarized the data, noting the GOP leads of 7 percentage points on the economy, 13 points on immigration and 22 points on crime. The margins extend to independents as well, suggesting Republicans hold a cross-partisan advantage on the issues voters say matter most.

This combination of issue leads suggests that, if those three concerns dominate the electoral agenda, Democrats may struggle to win enough swing voters to compensate for their gaps with Republicans. The analysis cautions that simply opposing Trump will not suffice; Democrats must also bolster their own standing on those issues. The piece notes that the three gaps are not restricted to Republican-leaning voters but extend to independents, underscoring the difficulty Democrats face in closing the gap with a broad swath of voters who could decide the midterms.

Context from the latest political cycle adds another layer. The poll highlights a dynamic that has shown up in past contests: voters often judge the competing parties on core issues rather than on slogans. In the late stages of the 2022 midterms, President Biden was more unpopular than Trump at the outset of Election Day, yet Democrats gained a Senate seat and lost far fewer House seats than many forecasters had predicted. Post-election analyses suggested that the president’s party had a better-than-expected showing among voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden’s performance, a demographic pattern that helped Democrats overcome headwinds that year.

Today, the picture looks more favorable to Republicans on the questions voters say matter most. The poll notes that Trump remains well positioned to press a similar argument in 2024-style dynamics: even if voters do not love him, they may perceive the other party as less trustworthy on the issues they care about. The analysis stresses that Trump carried voters who did not like either major party candidate in both 2016 and 2024, a pattern cited as part of his enduring appeal in tighter, more issue-driven contests. Yet the piece does not claim the GOP has a lock on the race. Trump’s base energy could be a political advantage for Democrats if turnout spikes among anti-Trump voters, and the president’s job-approval rating could shift as economic conditions change.

Two cautions frame the near-term outlook. First, Trump’s job-approval ratings remain historically high for him, and the Republican Party continues to be viewed as more trusted than its opponent on the key issues. Second, a robust Republican advantage on crime, immigration and the economy does not guarantee a slam-dunk victory for the party in power if unemployment rises, inflation persists or external events alter the political weather. The analyst, Henry Olsen—a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center—emphasizes that while the data signal a challenging landscape for Democrats, the political environment remains fluid and contingent on economic performance and reform efforts in the months ahead.

For Democrats, the takeaway is clear: broad-based gains will likely require more than opposition to Trump. They will need to articulate credible policy improvements on the economy, crime and immigration that can translate into broader trust among independents and moderates. With the midterm clock ticking, the party’s ability to close the gap on these three issues could shape the race’s trajectory as voters weigh who is best equipped to deliver for the country.

The current snapshot underscores the volatility of a political environment in which a party can win elections even when its president remains unpopular, provided it can assemble enough cross-cutting support and turnout. As campaigns begin to coalesce around the major issues of the day, analysts say the coming weeks and months will test whether Democrats can narrow the perceived gaps on the very issues that seem to be most decisive to voters.