Shutdown standoff grows as lawmakers debate short-term funding through Nov. 21

WASHINGTON — The threat of a government shutdown has intensified as Republicans push a short-term funding bill through Nov. 21, while Democrats insist any measure must address health-care priorities, including reversing Medicaid cuts from the summer mega-bill and extending Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. With the House not expected to be in session ahead of a lapse, observers say a last-minute agreement appears unlikely.

If funding runs out, federal agencies would shutter non-excepted activities and furlough employees who are not essential to protecting life or property. Essential personnel would remain on the job but would not be paid until after the shutdown ends. Existing mandatory spending programs typically keep operating, so Social Security checks, Medicare claims processing and veterans' health care would continue, as would the processing and delivery of VA benefits. The U.S. Postal Service isn’t affected by a shutdown because it operates independently of the general federal budget. In short, the impact would be uneven, with some services continuing and others grinding to a halt.

During the 35-day partial shutdown in President Donald Trump’s first term, about 340,000 of the roughly 800,000 federal workers in affected agencies were furloughed. The rest were required to work, a reminder of how the planet’s largest employer can still function even amid a budget stalemate. The armed forces continued to operate, as did FBI investigators, CIA officers, air traffic controllers and airport security personnel. Some programs rely on mandatory spending and would otherwise continue to receive funding, while others face reduced activity.

Congress has historically acted after shutdowns to retroactively pay furloughed workers, though there are no guarantees. In 2019, Congress passed legislation ensuring furloughed workers would receive back pay once operations resume. In the meantime, some workers might miss paychecks, depending on how long spending remains unavailable. Service members would receive back pay for any missed wages once funding resumes. The Postal Service, funded separately, would not be affected.

The White House’s Office of Management and Budget has signaled a much more aggressive stance than in past shutdowns. An OMB memo released this week suggested reducing force levels in programs that did not receive funding through the current mega-bill and could be cut if agencies lack alternative funding. That approach would mark a sharp departure from earlier shutdowns, when furloughed employees typically returned to their posts once Congress acted.

Past shutdown planning offers a glimpse of expected consequences. Education Department officials warned that prolonged delays in obligations and payments could disrupt cash flow to districts, colleges and other education programs, while the National Park Service has said facilities could be temporarily closed or access restricted. Transportation would halt some hiring and security checks, and the Smithsonian institutions would close in the absence of funding. The FDA warned that work to protect animal health and food safety would be limited to imminent threats, with longer-term efforts paused pending funding.

With lawmakers showing little urge to bend, the path forward remains uncertain. The current standoff highlights how a shutdown could unfold in real time, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal workers and broad areas of government activity, even as some core services continue to operate. As the clock ticks toward potential funding gaps, observers caution that contingency plans and political calculations could still shift, creating a last-minute breakthrough—or a protracted lapse that stretches into the holiday season.