Southern Arizona voters decide Grijalva's successor in US House race

Voters in southern Arizona will decide on Tuesday who will finish the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva's term in the 7th Congressional District, a seat that has long leaned Democratic and has become vacant after Grijalva's death in March.

The contest pits Adelita Grijalva, the Democrat and Grijalva’s daughter, against Republican Daniel Butierez, a business owner who launched a bid to succeed the longtime progressive lawmaker. Two third-party candidates also are on the ballot to fill the final 15 months of the late congressman's term. Grijalva’s death left a rare vacancy in a district that has been deeply connected to the Grijalva name; one other vacancy in the country has since been filled, another in Texas remains, and a heavily Republican district in Tennessee will be filled after a December election.

Democrats hold a near two-to-one registration advantage over Republicans in the district, which covers parts of Tucson and a majority of the state’s border with Mexico. Most of the 7th District has been represented by Democrats since Arizona became a state in 1912, underscoring the long-standing partisan tilt in the area even as campaigns emphasize local issues like schools, public safety and the economy along with immigration policy.

Adelita Grijalva has emphasized that she would chart her own course while carrying the family name, seeking to build on her father’s legacy in the district. She has earned endorsements from prominent progressive lawmakers, including U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and she won the Democratic primary with more than 60% of the vote against a slate that included a former state lawmaker and a Gen Z digital strategist.

Butierez captured the GOP nomination by wide margins and has argued that border security and immigration enforcement must be at the forefront of policy, highlighting deportation efforts for people who entered the United States unlawfully during the Biden administration. He has suggested he can attract more Democratic voters in a district that has long leaned left but is scrutinizing how candidates address immigration and economic concerns.

The race centers on immigration and border security, themes that have dominated national debates in recent years. Grijalva has said she would advocate for legislation creating pathways to citizenship for recipients of the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and other migrants, while also supporting limits on immigration enforcement actions at schools, churches and medical facilities. Butierez, by contrast, has framed immigration enforcement as a core duty of the federal government and has supported deportation for those who entered the country illegally during the Biden administration.

Beyond immigration, analysts note the district’s demographics, its proximity to the border, and its political history will shape the race. Adelita Grijalva’s campaign has framed the race as a continuation of her father’s work on environmental justice, labor rights and progressive values, while Butierez has sought to demonstrate a pragmatic, business-oriented approach to issues like job growth and public safety.

Voter turnout is expected to be a decisive factor in an election that will determine who serves the final 15 months of Grijalva’s term and sets the stage for the district in the 2026 elections. The outcome will also reflect how the district balances its long Democratic lean with the national Republican push to target Democratic incumbents and districts with strong immigrant and border-policy concerns. Local residents are watching for how each candidate addresses everyday concerns—wages, healthcare costs, housing affordability—alongside the overarching questions about border policy and the kind of leadership that best represents the southern Arizona community.