Trump enters election year with big wins—and bigger headwinds
As midterms loom, GOP support erodes amid inflation worries and expanded presidential powers
President Donald Trump enters the new year with a policy agenda that opponents say has dramatically expanded presidential power and reshaped U.S. international posture, even as he faces eroding political support within his own party and a challenging electoral landscape.
Trump’s allies say he delivered on a sweeping agenda that reshaped the economy, the federal bureaucracy, immigration policy and cultural life. He has reduced the size of the federal civilian workforce, dismantled and in some cases shut down agencies, cut humanitarian aid to certain countries, ordered sweeping immigration raids and deportations, and deployed National Guard troops in several Democratic-led cities. He has pursued a protectionist foreign policy by imposing broad tariffs and has backed a large tax-and-spending package. Along the way, he has pursued controversial moves that critics say stretched presidential authority and public institutions.
On foreign policy, Trump campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine on day one and promised a rapid peace. In practice, progress toward a broad settlement has been limited, and observers widely dispute some of his claims that eight wars have been ended. Nevertheless, his administration has maintained a posture that emphasizes a muscular national-security approach and a confrontational stance toward rival powers.
Historians and analysts say Trump has presided over an acceleration of executive action, moving decision-making away from Congress to the White House through orders and declarations. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has largely supported his positions, and with Republicans controlling Congress, there has been little institutional pushback. A notable view among scholars is that Trump has wielded power with fewer restraints in the past 11 months than many presidents since Franklin D. Roosevelt, though comparisons to the 1930s are partly shaped by an exceptional political era in American history.
As the political calendar turns toward the 2026 midterms, some Republican lawmakers appear uneasy with the current economic trajectory. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this period put Trump’s approval at 39 percent, a level near the lower end of his current term and reflective of lingering voter concern about inflation and the cost of living. Analysts say that while Trump remains a central figure for the party, rising economic anxieties could complicate efforts to keep congressional majorities intact.
Trump has spent the month highlighting his economic agenda, traveling to speak to supporters and press advocates about plans to reduce prices, even though he is not on the ballot this November. A lengthy Pennsylvania address drew attention for its broad-ranging topics and for remarks that some Republicans viewed as wandering from the core economic message, framing affordability as a Democratic hoax in ways that unsettled some strategists.
We have to remind voters they need to give the president a full four years, said an ally with close ties to the White House, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions. The comment underscores a political calculus in which party actors weigh the need to defend a controversial president against the risk of alienating voters facing higher living costs.
Still, the political environment remains perilous for Trump. As Republicans weigh how closely to align with him on the economy, the risk that rising prices will erode electoral support could prompt some lawmakers to distance themselves to protect their seats in November. The possibility that Democrats would gain control of the House, and perhaps move toward impeaching a president from the opposing party, adds a further layer of complexity to a year already defined by a combustible mix of sweeping executive action and partisan conflict.
Looking ahead, analysts say the year will test whether Trump can translate his policy wins into durable political support. If inflation persists and public concerns about costs deepen, the GOP may shift toward broader effort to present alternative economic plans and diversify its leadership, even as Trump remains the defining figure of the party's national brand.
