Trump’s sagging Texas Latino support could derail GOP redistricting gamble, CNN data chief warns
Harry Enten says Latinos’ dip in approval could undercut Republicans’ plan to redraw districts in Texas, a strategy tied to Trump’s past gains with the demographic.
Texas Republicans’ bid to redraw congressional districts in a Trump-flavored image is facing headwinds tied to the president’s slipping standing with Latinos in the state. CNN data chief Harry Enten warned Thursday that the plan could backfire if Texas Latinos do not remain aligned with the GOP, a dynamic that has shifted notably since 2024.
Enten pointed to several redrawn districts that would be predominantly Hispanic and argued that the strategy rests on a fragile bet: that Latinos in Texas will stay in the Republican camp. He cited polling showing Trump’s net favorable rating with Texas Latinos has fallen from roughly even in October 2024 to a negative 32 today. “If the bet is on Texas Latinos to stay in the Republican camp like they did in 2024, that is a bet that they may not, in fact, be able to cash in on at this point,” he said in an interview with CNN’s John Berman. Enten stressed that the decline in Texas mirrors a national trend as Trump’s appeal with the demographic wanes.
The analysis also highlights a deterioration in Trump’s standing with Texas Latinos on the economy. In October 2024, when matched against former Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump held a +9 net approval rating among Texas Latinos on how he would handle the economy. Today, that figure has cratered to -40, a nearly 50-point swing that Enten described as a defining shift in the state’s political calculus.
Enten underscored the fragility of relying on Latinos to sustain the Republicans’ redistricting strategy. “They may have bit off a bit more than they can chew,” he said, adding, “I’m not sure this redistricting plan will work out quite the way they hope it will.” The sentiment reflects a broader pattern noted by analysts: the drop in Latino support for Trump in Texas is not isolated but part of a national realignment that could complicate Republicans’ electoral map ahead of the midterms.
The Texas redistricting effort has been framed as an opportunity for Republicans to lock in seats in a state that has surged in population and political influence. By crafting districts that align with voting blocs, party operatives have argued they can maximize margins in key races. Critics, however, point to the risk that shifting demographics and changing attitudes among Latino voters could erode the gains the maps were designed to secure.
The current analysis arrives as Republicans navigate a political environment in which Latinos have become a focal point across several battlegrounds. While Trump has built a recognizable national profile, his standing among Texas Latinos—especially on economic issues—has weakened, potentially narrowing the path to achieving anticipated outcomes from redrawn districts.
Observers note that much hinges on turnout and persuasion in the post-redistricting landscape. If Latino voters in Texas remain less enthusiastic about Trump and more inclined toward alternatives—or if they shift opinions on the economy—Republicans could find themselves with fewer competitive districts than the maps initially suggested. The upshot, according to Enten, is that the plan’s success cannot be assumed, and the dynamics of Latino votes in Texas will likely influence the midterm outcomes more than some strategists anticipated.