UK Labour poll offers cross-Atlantic caution for US politics

A Survation poll of more than 2,000 voters conducted ahead of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool shows a broad malaise about the party’s performance, with two-thirds saying Labour has failed to meet expectations one year after Keir Starmer’s landslide victory. The survey highlights deep disillusionment among working-class voters, with three-quarters saying Labour had not delivered on promises; only 1% said Labour had exceeded expectations.

Voters identified the cost of living as Labour’s most pressing issue, followed closely by immigration. With inflation running higher than at the last election, many respondents reported feeling worse off under Labour’s tenure, even as the party argues it should be judged by how well ordinary people fare. The economy’s trajectory under Labour’s stewardship also drew criticism, with a sizable portion of respondents saying the economy has worsened since Rachel Reeves took charge at the Treasury.

The survey also found limited public faith in Labour’s ability to curb illegal immigration, despite a tougher rhetoric from Prime Minister Starmer. When asked about the plan to “smash the gangs” responsible for Channel crossings, 66% believed it would fail, compared with 24% who thought it would succeed. Likewise, 64% said the new “one in, one out” deal with France would fail to deter crossings, while 27% anticipated success. A move to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights drew support from 36% of respondents, with 25% opposed and the remainder undecided.

Economy and welfare measures drew mixed reactions. Voters reported that Labour’s record on the economy is poor, with 45% saying they feel worse off with Labour in power and 16% saying Reeves’s economic stewardship has improved matters. On welfare policy, 52% opposed scrapping the two-child benefit cap, a policy area Labour faces pressure to re-examine despite its price tag of roughly £3.5 billion. In the criminal-justice arena, 47% said Labour’s plans to ease prison overcrowding could increase crime, while only 9% predicted a decline; 17% supported cutting jail sentences to address overcrowding, but 51% opposed.

Reform UK remains the principal electoral threat to Labour, with the party led by Nigel Farage polling at 29% overall, well ahead of Labour at 20%, the Conservatives at 15%, the Lib Dems at 9%, and the Greens at 8%. Farage enjoys a net favorable rating of plus five (42% favorable, 37% unfavorable), while Sir Keir Starmer trails with a net rating of minus 24 (27% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Other leaders fared similarly, with the Conservative leader and Liberal Democrat leader posting net ratings of minus eight and minus one, respectively.

The poll comes amid a swirl of controversy that has shadowed Labour’s conference preparations. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Britain’s ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, left their posts amid recent events, and questions have circulated about party fundraising and governance. Voters expressed strong belief that Starmer failed to keep his pre-election pledge to “clean up politics” by a margin of 66% to 25%. In Labour’s favour, a subset of voters supported certain policies, including identity cards by 48–23 and a youth mobility scheme with the European Union by 46–18, suggesting there are pocketed areas where the party retains appeal.

Meanwhile, public sentiment toward party unity and electoral strategy remains nuanced. The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Reform to counter Labour was rejected by 49% to 29% overall, though Tory voters were split on the question and Reform voters opposed it more strongly. Labour voters, by contrast, opposed any such alliance by a wide margin, underscoring persistent intra-party divisions about strategy and coalition-building as the conference approaches.

The poll’s broader takeaway is that the current political climate is challenging for governing parties that emphasize crisis-management narratives, especially on bread-and-butter issues like inflation, cost of living, and public services. The results offer a cautious signal to politicians and strategists beyond the United Kingdom: voters reward candor about difficult trade-offs, but remain skeptical of broad promises to reshape long-standing structural challenges.

For U.S. readers and policymakers, the poll provides a cross-Atlantic reminder that incumbents and prospective challengers alike must confront cost-of-living pressures, immigration policy credibility, and the social contract underlying economic promises. Analysts say the most important takeaway is the delta between political rhetoric and everyday experiences, and the imperative for clear, implementable plans that voters feel will make a tangible difference in their lives.