Vance favored for GOP nomination, Shapiro seen as Democratic frontrunner in AmericaFest predictions for 2028
At Phoenix conference, attendees map a Rust Belt tilt and a generational clash between two young leaders that could redefine the 2028 race.
PHOENIX — The 2028 presidential election is taking shape among AmericaFest attendees, with Vice President JD Vance emerging as the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro identified as the Democratic frontrunner, ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. The predictions highlight a contest between two younger figures, Vance at 41 and Shapiro at 52, and hint at a potential reshaping of the so-called blue wall that Trump carried in recent elections if Shapiro translates Pennsylvania’s name recognition into a broader Rust Belt rebound.
Several attendees described the race as potentially pivotal for the Rust Belt if the trajectories hold. Shapiro’s prominence in Pennsylvania could help Democrats regain influence there, though he has publicly downplayed any White House bid, telling a talk show host he is not an expert on Beltway politics and lives in the real world in Pennsylvania where budgets must be balanced. Still, the perception among some participants is that Shapiro is the Democrats’ most viable nominee.
Barbara, a voter from Camarillo, Calif., said she expects Vance to step into the support base formed by Trump and that he would be a strong candidate from that movement. She also named Shapiro as the most likely Democrat to carry the mantle and argued that Shapiro would be credible against a potential general election matchup, adding that in a hypothetical contest with Newsom she believes Shapiro would perform well for the Democrats.
Nick, from Nashville, said Shapiro is the most viable Democratic prospect for 2028. He suggested Newsom or Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could be the nominee chosen by the party base, but he doubted the DNC would pass over a Shapiro bid. He also predicted that post-Trump conservatism would feature a number of competing voices, though Trump would remain a dominant influence on the direction of the movement.
Karen, from Wisconsin, told Fox News Digital she hopes the GOP eventually selects JD Vance or Marco Rubio and emphasized the importance of engaging young voters in the party’s future. She remarked that there are many capable conservatives who could lead, and she expressed a desire to see the youth more actively involved in shaping policy and the party program beyond figures like Charlie Kirk.
Gavin Newsom has been discussed by observers as the Democratic frontrunner for 2028 in outlets such as Politico, which labeled him as the party’s likely leading candidate in that scenario. Some attendees viewed Newsom as a possible foil to a Shapiro bid, while others considered Shapiro’s statewide recognition to be a critical asset for a national campaign.
Amy, from Michigan, predicted Shapiro would be the Democrats’ top pick in 2028, envisioning a contested race against Vance for the presidency. Elizabeth, from San Diego, expressed concern that Newsom’s path could complicate the Democratic field, but she saw Shapiro’s national profile as a likely focal point. Ed, from San Diego, said the Republican mantle could fall to Vance or to Secretary of State Marco Rubio after Trump. A representative for Shapiro’s 2026 gubernatorial re‑election campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The overall takeaway from AmericaFest is a sense of migration in political energy toward a two‑man dynamic backed by smaller coteries of supporters who see a generational shift but not a wholesale break with Trump‑era politics. The discussion reflects how the party coalitions might realign in a 2028 race that could redefine the previously built blue wall and test whether the Rust Belt can swing back toward the Democrats under Shapiro’s visibility and campaigning in Pennsylvania.
