Assumption Island’s fate could tilt Seychelles’ presidential race

A tiny, almost barren island in the Indian Ocean has become a central electoral issue in Seychelles, where voters head to the polls this weekend to choose a president and a 26-member National Assembly. Assumption Island, a remote land mass roughly the size of London’s Heathrow Airport and located about 1,140 km (700 miles) from the main island of Mahé, has become a geopolitical and environmental flashpoint as the government pushes ahead with a long-anticipated deal with Qatari investors.

The deal centers on a 70-year lease and a $20 million down payment that would allow a Middle East–backed consortium to develop a luxury resort complex on part of Assumption Island, along with an upgraded airstrip capable of handling executive jets. The investment has been pitched by authorities as a path to much-needed diversification and jobs, particularly after Seychelles’ tourism-reliant economy was hit hard by the pandemic. Yet critics warn the project could set a precedent for foreign military or strategic interests in the archipelago and threaten ecologically sensitive areas nearby, including the UNESCO-listed Aldabra atoll.

As the lease and its implications dominate political discourse, Assumption Island sits near the Aldabra group, which hosts a pristine ecosystem with hundreds of species found nowhere else on the planet. Aldabra is frequently cited by conservationists as a global natural treasure, and watchdogs fear that development on Assumption could disturb nesting beaches and the delicate balance of marine and terrestrial habitats. A stop work notice issued by Seychelles’ planning authority in May has not halted construction, sparking further scrutiny from environmental advocates who have sought a fuller, independent environmental impact assessment and international observer guarantees. In May, Friends of Aldabra and Seychelles at Heart filed an injunction with the Constitutional Court to pause the project until such safeguards are in place.

Conservationists argue that Assumption’ s protection is critical not only for local wildlife but for a broader ecological ledger that includes Aldabra, home to 400 species unique to the ecosystem and long celebrated by researchers and global observers. Campaigners have pointed to what they describe as a lack of transparency and oversight in the decision-making process, raising concerns about how environmental safeguards will be enforced and who will monitor them.

On the political side, President Wavel Ramkalawan, an ordained Anglican priest who signed the deal with Qatar last year, has defended the project as an essential part of Seychelles’ economic survival in a small, open economy. He told BBC News that, while the country faces foreign and domestic pressures, it will not host foreign military bases and will stay outside broader geopolitical contests. 'We are not interested in the geopolitics. We remain outside,' Ramkalawan said on the eve of polling. He has framed the Assumption lease as a pragmatic step toward investment and development that could help shore up public finances and social programs amid lingering challenges from the pandemic.

The opposition United Seychelles (US), led by Dr Patrick Herminie, contends that the government has tied the country too closely to one foreign investor and argues that the promised economic gains do not justify the risks to sovereignty, governance, and the environment. Herminie has criticized the administration’s handling of public finances and governance reforms, arguing that voters should demand greater transparency and accountability. He has positioned his party as a vehicle for cleaning up administration and reducing corruption, promising a different trajectory if elected.

A growing number of voters appear to be weighing environmental protection more heavily than raw economic indicators. Seychelles’ economy has shown resilience since the worst of the pandemic, with IMF forecasts suggesting GDP growth around 5.8% this year, foreign reserves rebounding, and unemployment relatively low. Still, critics say foreign investment and the opaque process around Assumption reflect broader concerns about governance and long-term social welfare, while supporters highlight the need to attract capital and diversify away from a tourism-only model.

Independents and smaller parties also play a role in the election landscape. Firebrand publisher and candidate Ralph Volcere has used his platform to call for greater justice and governance reforms, including a push to decriminalize recreational cannabis as part of a broader effort to curb corruption and support social programs. Volcere’s campaign, which mixes anti-corruption rhetoric with calls for transparency, has positioned him as a potential kingmaker in a tightly contested result, though he himself faces scrutiny over past alliances and legal cases involving other local actors.

Voters in Seychelles—about 73,000 registered—face a choice that could shape not only the direction of domestic policy but also how the small island nation navigates international investment, environmental stewardship, and regional security considerations as global scrutiny of overseas deals intensifies. The election also features a 26-seat National Assembly, where party strength could influence how future investments are vetted and regulated, including any future offshore agreements affecting Assumption or the Aldabra ecosystem.

Two main contenders, Ramkalawan and Herminie, remain ahead of the field as campaigning enters its final stretch. The race has exposed a broader debate about how to balance growth, transparency, and environmental protection in a country that has prided itself on steady macroeconomic performance while grappling with inequality and longstanding governance questions. In this environment, Assumption Island’s fate is less about a single project and more about how Seychelles charts a sustainable path forward, balancing the expectations of a global audience with the needs and aspirations of a small, tightly knit national community.

Analysts say the outcome could influence public sentiment toward future deals with foreign investors and how the government enforces environmental protections and governance standards. Conservation groups caution that the stakes extend beyond elections, potentially setting a precedent for how wildlife-rich and ecologically sensitive sites are treated amid development pressures in the region. With Assumption serving as a flashpoint, the election is shaping up as a referendum on whether Seychelles will prioritize rapid investment or steadfast environmental stewardship, and whether the next administration will tighten transparency and oversight in dealings that could set the tone for years to come.

As voters prepare to cast ballots, the global spotlight on a tiny island with outsized strategic and environmental significance underscores how local choices can echo far beyond national borders. The final result may determine not only who leads Seychelles but also how the country engages with international partners in a world where biodiversity, climate, and governance are increasingly inseparable from geopolitics.