Badenoch narrows gap with Farage as end-of-year poll signals potential Left coalition risk

A December poll by Lord Ashcroft shows Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party closing the gap with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to three points, with the Tories on 22 percent and Reform on 25 percent. The end-of-year survey, conducted from December 11 to 15 among 5,195 voters, suggests Badenoch’s improved performance in Parliament and a package of policy ideas are starting to resonate with voters.

The survey shows Reform UK’s seven-point lead from a month earlier has evaporated, and the current alignment would leave Farage needing an electoral agreement with the Conservatives to have a realistic path to Downing Street. Labour remains in fourth place, a point behind Zack Polanski’s Greens, meaning the math of a possible left-wing coalition with the Liberal Democrats would command roughly 47 percent of the vote—roughly equal to the combined support for the Conservative and Reform blocs. If the Right fails to unite, the Left could have a clear route to government.

Ms Badenoch has sought to quiet internal dissent by presenting more assured public performances and a policy platform that includes the abolition of stamp duty and the scrapping of the ban on selling new petrol and diesel cars after 2030. By contrast, voters’ doubts about Reform moving beyond the Nigel Farage show persist, with questions about whether the party can function effectively as a government in waiting rather than a campaigning entity.

The poll also probes leadership perception and potential electoral timing. Farage continues to dominate festive-season rankings on questions about which party leader voters would most like to spend New Year’s Eve with, and other lighthearted measures. Keir Starmer trails on some party-party questions, while Badenoch is seen as more likely to help clear up after Christmas lunch. Still, the broader political mood is heavily shaped by the economy: 38 percent of respondents said they would have less money to spend on presents this year, and 11 percent said they would be in a position to be more generous.

On the longevity and direction of Labour’s leadership, the survey notes lingering disillusionment among conservative-leaning voters. About half of Labour supporters want the government to cling on until the end of the five-year term, while 17 percent prefer an election next year. Among Labour voters, there is some openness to a change in leadership, with 51 percent expressing a desire to see Angela Rayner back in a cabinet post after her resignation over stamp duty issues, though only 26 percent of the general electorate believe she would make a better prime minister than Sir Keir Starmer.

The question of timing is frequent in the data: 39 percent of respondents would like a ballot next year, compared with 26 percent who prefer to wait until the next legally permissible general election in 2029. The results underscore how the right-leaning field remains fluid as the year closes, with voters weighing whether the Conservatives and Reform UK can translate polling traction into durable governance or whether a coalition-led Left would secure a governing majority if the opposition unites.

In sum, the end-of-year snapshot shows Badenoch’s Conservatives narrowing the gap with Reform UK to three points, a diminished Reform lead from a month ago, and a political landscape in which a united right could be as formidable as a consolidated left. The coming months will test whether the policy shifts and public performances can translate into more substantial support at the ballot box, or whether Labour can reverse its slide and reshape the electoral arithmetic in the face of a potential Right coalition.