Countdown clock to Badenoch leadership challenge intensifies Tory turmoil

A Tory MP set up a countdown clock to the day Kemi Badenoch could be toppled as Conservative leader, signaling renewed internal pressure as defections to Reform UK mount. The clock, posted on X by an anonymous account under the handle @kemicountdown, targets November 3 — the first date under Conservative rules when a leadership challenge can be launched. The development follows a week in which Badenoch faced fresh defections and growing opposition within the party, with East Wiltshire MP Danny Kruger crossing to Reform UK and ex-health minister Maria Caulfield soon afterward, bringing the count of former Conservative MPs who have defected to Nigel Farage’s party to 15. In the wake of those defections, Sir John Hayes warned in the Mail on Sunday that unless the Conservative Party changes, it will “wither and die,” calling for a renewed energy and boldness to address the country’s restlessness.

Polls circulated alongside the leadership chatter suggest that, if a general election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would fall to double figures in MPs and could slip to third place for the first time in modern political history. Many Tory MPs acknowledge the likelihood of losing their seats if they run as Conservatives in the next election, even as senior party insiders say rebels are delaying moves until after local elections in May.

Inside Badenoch’s camp, morale is said to be uneven. Some aides report low spirits, with staffers seeking other roles and others appearing disengaged. Loyalists, however, point to a recent rebound in her Commons performances, including a pointed challenge to Labour leader Keir Starmer over Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein. Nonetheless, the party’s mood remains unsettled, and strategists expect opposition to cohere around a leadership bid once the May local polls pass.

Robert Jenrick, the current favorite to succeed Badenoch, is seen as more open to pursuing pacts with Reform UK, a development that has complicated the tactical calculations for Badenoch’s team. In an effort to bolster her presentation and communication skills, Badenoch has brought in former MP Rob Butler, who helped Liz Truss during the 2022 leadership debates, a move aimed at sharpening her pitch during the forthcoming conference.

Neil O’Brien MP, the party’s new policy chief, is said to be shocked by what he views as a lack of fresh policy ideas. An insider said he has opened the door to the possibility that there is “nothing there” to present. One policy emphasis expected at the autumn conference is a pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, a move Badenoch’s aides argue is crucial for border controls. However, strategists caution that Reform UK signaled a similar commitment last month, which could blunt any perceived shift in public opinion.

A Tory MP who requested anonymity commented: “We know the ship is going down. The question is whether the party wants to go down with her.” The party’s official line was equally tone-deaf to online mockery, with a spokesman saying, “We don’t care about Twitter jokes, the economy is in crisis and we’re focused on that,” while noting that “operationally we are in better shape under Mrs Badenoch.”

The intersection of leadership rules, local elections, and Reform’s appeal is shaping a fraught autumn for the Conservative Party as it eyes a potential leadership contest that could redefine its grip on power in Westminster. For Badenoch, the challenge will be to translate party unity, policy signals, and a more assertive public performance into a credible alternative to Reform’s growing appeal, even as rivals test the boundaries of loyalty and governance amid a volatile political landscape.