Countdown clock to leadership challenge heightens Tory turmoil

A Tory MP has set up a countdown clock aimed at the day Kemi Badenoch could be toppled as Conservative leader, a development that underscored the growing pressure on her tenure amid defections to Reform UK.

The account, @kemicountdown on X, has posted daily updates and focuses on a clock counting toward November 3, the first date a leadership challenge can be triggered under Conservative party rules. An anonymous backbench figure behind the project has helped turn the clock into a talking point for a party wrestling with declining poll numbers and growing calls for renewal.

The defections mounting against Badenoch include East Wiltshire MP Danny Kruger’s switch to Reform UK, followed by former health minister Maria Caulfield as the 15th former Conservative MP to defect to Nigel Farage’s party. The mood among rebels has been intensified by a warning in today’s Mail on Sunday from Sir John Hayes: “Unless the Conservative Party changes it will wither and die. We must demonstrate an energy that matches the nation’s restlessness; a boldness that recognises its desire for rapid change; and a doggedness that shows our commitment to do the right thing.”

Polls suggest that if a general election were held tomorrow the Conservative tally would shrink to double figures, leaving the party in third place for the first time in modern history. Behind the numbers, morale inside Badenoch’s circle is said to be mixed: some senior staffers are looking for other roles, while others report a degree of disengagement. Yet Badenoch loyalists point to recent Commons performances, including a forceful attack on Labour leader Keir Starmer over Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein, as evidence of improved leadership on the floor.

Despite the internal pressure, most senior party figures expect the rebels to bide their time until after local elections in May before mounting a sustained challenge. The contest to succeed Badenoch remains fluid: Robert Jenrick—the current favorite among observers to take over—is seen as more open to forming a pact with Reform than some rivals. In the meantime, Badenoch has brought in former MP Rob Butler, who helped Liz Truss with her leadership debates in 2022, to sharpen presentation and messaging as the party readies for its autumn conference.

Neil O’Brien MP, the party’s policy chief, is said to be shocked by the lack of fresh policy ideas a year into Badenoch’s leadership, with insiders describing an “open door” to new directions only to find little on offer. Badenoch is expected to announce at conference that the party intends to pursue leaving the European Convention on Human Rights—an objective touted as crucial to Britain’s border policy. Yet strategists caution that Reform UK had already signaled a similar move last month, limiting what such a pledge might achieve in shifting public opinion.

One Tory MP encapsulated the mood: “We know the ship is going down. The question is whether the party wants to go down with her.” A Badenoch spokesman pushed back against the online mockery, saying, “We don’t care about Twitter jokes, the economy is in crisis and we’re focused on that,” and argued that operationally the party was in better shape under Badenoch.