Estonia airspace breach by Russian jets prompts NATO response and calls for red lines

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for about 12 minutes on Friday, a brazen test of the Baltic state's air defenses, according to Estonian authorities. The incursion prompted NATO to scramble Italian F-35 jets to intercept the aircraft before they returned to Russian airspace, officials said. The jets briefly crossed near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland, violating airspace five miles into Estonian territory, while their transponders were reportedly turned off and they did not file flight plans.

Separately, two Russian jets conducted a show of force over a Polish offshore oil platform in the Baltic, entering the platform's safety zone and prompting alerts from Polish forces. In response to the Estonian breach, Estonia summoned the Russian chargé d'affaires for an explanation, and later requested NATO Article 4 consultations to discuss collective defense. EU and NATO leaders condemned the incident as a dangerous provocation; Estonia and its Baltic neighbors urged steps to strengthen defenses and deter further incursions.

Politically, the breach follows a string of Russian actions aimed at testing Western resolve. European leaders have underscored that Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are among the most exposed NATO states in the region, and that a pattern of border testing requires a unified, credible response. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called the incident unprecedentedly brazen, and said Russia's behavior demands rapid political and economic pressure. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who is Estonian, said Putin is testing the West's resolve and that the bloc must not show weakness. Lithuanian defense minister Dovile Sakaliene said NATO's northeast border is being probed for a reason and urged alliance members to mean business. Former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned that Russia often escalates without consequence and suggested that inaction risks emboldening Moscow.

Meanwhile, NATO's defense circles warn that the long-term risk lies in the so-called grey zone, where Moscow uses ambiguous actions to sow doubt and push the alliance into cautious responses. Air Marshal Greg Bagwell, a former RAF deputy commander, urged a clear and public red line from NATO and a decisive response if crossed. He warned that today the aircraft carried air-to-air missiles and tomorrow could carry more dangerous payloads, and argued for a united, unequivocal stance on what constitutes unacceptable behavior. He called for turning the grey zone into a black-and-white distinction and stopping Putin from setting the terms of interaction.

Ukraine remained under pressure as Russia conducted additional strikes across multiple regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas, and urged Kyiv's allies to bolster air defense systems and impose further sanctions. Zelenskiy said the strikes were part of a deliberate strategy to terrorize civilians and destroy infrastructure, not military necessity.

MI6 director Sir Richard Moore condemned the Kremlin's actions, calling Vladimir Putin a liar who seeks to impose his imperial will by all means and stressing that Russia's behavior threatens European security. Officials in London and elsewhere described the breach as a serious violation of international norms and a signal that the war in Ukraine remains a central preoccupation for NATO and the European Union. In Washington, President Donald Trump remarked that Putin had not lived up to expectations and that there could be big trouble in response, as he prepared to receive briefings on the latest developments.

Estonia's move follows similar incursions in recent weeks, including reports that drones crossed into Poland, and comes as NATO members reassess early-warning and border-control arrangements. Estonia's neighbor states have long warned that Russia's border testing could escalate into a more serious confrontation. The Kremlin has not publicly commented on the incident, while Estonia's government has signaled it will consult with NATO to bolster deterrence.

Overall, the episode underscores the fragile state of security in Europe’s eastern flank as Washington, Brussels, and allied capitals weigh responses. The EU's Kallas said the bloc will support member states in strengthening defenses with European resources, and warned against weakness in the face of aggressive moves by Moscow. The incident remains part of a broader pattern of Russian pressure on NATO's eastern flank as Moscow continues its war in Ukraine.