Estonian airspace breach by Russian MiG-31 fighters prompts NATO Article 4 consultations

Estonia said Russian MiG-31 fighters violated its airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, ignoring signals from NATO stealth jets as they conducted combat operations in the Baltic region. The aircraft took off from a base near Petrozavodsk in northwestern Russia and were en route to Kaliningrad when they were tracked by two Finnish fighter jets and escorted into international airspace by two Italian F-35s that had taken off from Amari Air Base in Estonia.

Between 9:58 a.m. and 10:10 a.m. local time near Vaindloo, in the Baltic Sea, the Russian pair or group remained within Estonian airspace, according to Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of Estonia’s Military Intelligence Centre. Russia acknowledged radio communications from the Italian pilots but did not appear to follow the signals, he said, adding that the incursion lasted the full 12 minutes and that the pilots 'must have known that they are in [Estonian] airspace.' He cautioned that it was not yet clear whether the incident was deliberate, but emphasized that the border violation was genuine and observable by multiple radars and visual identification. The MiG-31s were observed entering Estonian airspace from a Petrozavodsk area route and were proceeding toward Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave.

The jets were tracked by Finnish air defense and escorted by two Italian F-35 fighters that took off from Amari Air Base in Estonia and followed the Russian aircraft into international skies, Col. Kiviselg said. He emphasized that while Russia denied violating Estonian airspace, the Estonian defense ministry maintained that the intrusion was real and fourth such breach this year. A spokesman for the Estonian defense ministry argued that Moscow’s denial should be weighed against the alliance’s multiple radars and visual identification confirming entry into Estonian airspace.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said the government would request consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which orders urgent discussions among alliance members when a member’s territorial integrity or security is threatened. 'Such a violation is completely unacceptable. NATO’s response to any provocation must be united and strong,' Michal said, adding that Estonia seeks shared situational awareness and coordinated next steps with allies. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called the incident 'a very serious violation of NATO airspace.' Estonia’s government stressed that there was no immediate trigger to invoke Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause, but underscored the desire for a unified, robust response.

The Turkish-style incident came as Western officials noted the Baltic incident alongside broader tensions on NATO’s eastern flank. Russia’s denial of the breach was issued online early Saturday, with Moscow asserting its fighters remained over neutral Baltic Sea waters more than three kilometers from Vaindloo Island. Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur rejected the Kremlin’s account, underscoring that Estonia and its allies possess robust radar coverage and visual verification that confirm entry into Estonia’s airspace. Pevkur suggested Moscow may be trying to distract Western attention from Ukraine or to provoke NATO into diverting resources to Europe’s periphery.

The day’s events unfolded as U.S. President Donald Trump, during remarks in Washington, said he would be briefed on reports of the incident and added: 'I don’t love it. I don’t like it when that happens. It could be big trouble.' His comments reflected a broader political reaction in Washington as Russia pursued strikes against Ukraine and as allied leaders weighed their options. In Estonia’s view, the provocation underscores the need for allied resolve; Margus Tsahkna and other Baltic officials urged a united NATO stance to deter further violations and to pressure Moscow through political and economic measures.

Beyond the Baltic breach, NATO and Polish forces remained on heightened alert as Russia conducted airstrikes against Ukraine. Polish and allied aircraft operated in their airspace, while ground-based air defense and radar systems were put on high readiness. Ukrainian authorities reported widespread air-raid alerts across the country, with Zelensky saying Russia had launched roughly 580 drones and 40 missiles aimed at infrastructure, civilian targets, and production facilities. Ukrainian officials described the strikes as a deliberate strategy to terrorize civilians and disrupt energy and water infrastructure, and Ukrainian air defenses claimed significant success in downing drone swarms and missiles over several regions.

Zelensky said he would meet with the U.S. president to discuss security guarantees and sanctions, and Kyiv pressed for expanded air defense systems and tougher costs on Moscow. In Europe, Czech President Petr Pavel urged NATO to respond proportionally to Russian violations, including potential lethal measures if necessary, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called Friday’s incursion an 'extremely dangerous provocation' that warrants a stronger, coordinated response. Lithuanian and Baltic defense officials stressed that NATO must 'mean business' and be prepared to adjust deterrence postures in light of ongoing Kremlin pressure.

The incident marks another escalation in which Russia appears to be testing NATO’s readiness and unity. It comes amid a string of recent provocations in which Russian forces have conducted reconnaissance and cross-border activity near allied states, including incursions into Polish airspace via drones and approaches toward NATO airspace. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland have repeatedly warned that such deployments could escalate into more dangerous confrontations if not met with a coherent strategic response. Analysts have cautioned that Moscow may be probing alliance thresholds to justify greater defense commitments or to complicate the Western response to Ukraine, while some observers warn against overreliance on delayed or ambiguous red-line declarations in the face of hybrid warfare and rapid military moves. In the longer view, the Baltic states are pressing for stronger NATO presence and for a sustained, united posture to deter further Russian provocations and to reassure regional partners that alliance solidarity remains intact.