Fears of renewed civil war in South Sudan rise after treason charges against Riek Machar

South Sudan faces a heightened risk of a return to large-scale conflict after the party of suspended Vice-President Riek Machar called for “regime change” following treason and criminal charges against him.

Machar, who has been under house arrest since March, was indicted in September on charges that include murder, treason and crimes against humanity. His party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO), denounced the charges as a "political witch-hunt" intended to dismantle the 2018 peace accord that ended a five-year civil war. The SPLM-IO urged supporters to "report for national service" and to use "all means available to regain their country and sovereignty," a call that raised fears of renewed mobilisation though there have been no confirmed reports of large-scale troop movements by the party.

The unrest has drawn regional attention and deployments. A convoy carrying additional Ugandan soldiers was observed entering the capital, Juba, this week; witnesses reported seven lorries carrying heavily armed troops, three armoured vehicles and an ambulance, all without licence plates. Uganda says its forces are deployed under an existing agreement to support South Sudan’s army, but the extra contingent has fuelled concern that tensions around Machar’s trial could turn violent.

The immediate crisis traces back to clashes in March when the White Army militia, allied to Machar during the previous civil war, overran a military base in Nasir in Upper Nile state. On March 7, a United Nations helicopter attempting to evacuate troops came under fire, killing several people including a senior army general. Machar and several associates were placed under house arrest nearly three weeks later amid allegations they were trying to stir rebellion.

Rather than easing tensions, the government’s indictment of Machar in September marked a dramatic escalation. Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, deputy leader of the SPLM-IO, said at the time that the prospect for peace and stability had been put into "serious jeopardy." The timing and severity of the charges have been criticised by international rights groups and opposition figures as undermining the unity government arrangement that was central to the 2018 peace deal.

A separate United Nations inquiry has deepened concerns about the state of governance and public services in South Sudan. The 101-page report, "Plundering a Nation: How Rampant Corruption Unleashed a Human Rights Crisis in South Sudan," concluded that political elites had siphoned off large portions of the country’s oil revenues since independence in 2011. The commission said the state collected more than $25.2 billion in oil income but that much of it was systematically misappropriated, depriving millions of people of food, medicine, education and security. The report highlighted the controversial "Oil for Roads" programme as having channelled an estimated $2.2 billion into patronage instead of infrastructure.

Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, said corruption had become the "engine of South Sudan's decline" and warned that billions intended for healthcare and schools were disappearing through opaque deals and shell companies. The government’s justice minister, Joseph Geng Akech, dismissed the report’s findings and attributed the country’s economic problems to conflict, climate change and reduced crude sales.

South Sudan became the world’s youngest nation in 2011 after a decades-long struggle for secession from Sudan led by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. The country slipped into civil war in 2013 when President Salva Kiir sacked Machar as vice-president and accused him of plotting a coup. The ensuing conflict, fought largely along ethnic lines between the Dinka, associated with Kiir, and the Nuer, associated with Machar, is estimated to have caused about 400,000 deaths and forced roughly 2.5 million people from their homes.

The 2018 peace agreement aimed to reunite the country by reintegrating former rebel forces and government soldiers into a single national army of 83,000 troops and by disarming other militias. It also envisaged the creation, with African Union support, of a court to try those responsible for past atrocities and set a pathway toward elections. Key elements of the deal remain unimplemented: the security arrangements have not been completed, disarmament has been partial, the hybrid court has not been established, a new constitution has not been adopted and elections originally planned for 2022 have been repeatedly postponed.

Machar, 72, and Kiir, 74, were once allies in the SPLM but have alternated between partnership and open conflict. Machar’s political trajectory included switching sides during the liberation struggle to strengthen both his position and that of the Nuer community; he served as vice-president at independence and was later sacked in 2013, reinstated under a 2016 agreement, and then forced into exile as fighting resumed. Kiir, a former rebel commander who led the SPLM after John Garang’s death in 2005, has remained president since independence in 2011, presiding over repeated delays to national elections.

United Nations officials and analysts warn that renewed fighting could have regional consequences. Nicholas Haysom, head of the UN mission in South Sudan, has warned the country is "teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale civil war," and analysts at the International Crisis Group say the country’s many armed groups risk turning the conflict into a wider proxy war. The ongoing war in neighbouring Sudan adds to the instability in an already volatile region.

Machar met with his defence team over the weekend as his legal proceedings approach, but no trial date has been publicly confirmed. International partners and regional guarantors of the 2018 deal, including members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), face a renewed test of their influence as the prospect of renewed violence threatens a nation still recovering from a decade of conflict and economic decline.

South Sudan’s future will depend on whether political leaders adhere to the 2018 agreement’s spirit, whether security arrangements can be implemented, and whether regional and international actors can help de-escalate tensions while pressing for accountability and the restoration of services eroded by years of mismanagement and alleged corruption.