Former Tory MP Maria Caulfield defects to Reform UK as party widens poll lead and Labour's ratings fall

Maria Caulfield, a former Conservative health minister who now works as a full‑time nurse in the NHS, has joined Reform UK, the party announced on Tuesday, as Nigel Farage's outfit extended its lead in national opinion polling and Labour's approval ratings fell to a new low.

Caulfield, who served in the governments of Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak and was the MP for Lewes until she left Parliament, told GB News that "if you are Conservative right‑minded, then the future is Reform." Her move follows Danny Kruger's decision on Monday to become the first sitting Conservative MP to defect to Reform; Kruger announced his switch at a press conference alongside Farage.

The latest YouGov poll, fielded between Sept. 14 and 15 with 2,384 adult respondents, put Reform on 29 percent support, up two points week‑on‑week, and Labour on 20 percent, down two points. The Conservatives were unchanged on 17 percent, the Liberal Democrats on 15 percent and the Greens on 10 percent, down two points. The poll gave Reform a nine‑point lead over Labour.

An ally of Farage, businessman Arron Banks, suggested further defections could be coming from Labour's so‑called "Red Wall" constituencies, posting on X that he was "much more interested to learn which major trade union and Labour MPs in the red wall will jump to Reform. It's coming…" Banks was a backer of the Leave.EU campaign and has previously supported UKIP.

A separate More In Common poll reported a sharp fall in public approval for Prime Minister Keir Starmer following a turbulent fortnight in government. The survey found 17 percent of respondents said the prime minister was doing a good job while 63 percent said he was doing a bad job, producing a net approval rating of minus 46. The poll placed Starmer behind the leaders of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform on net approval: Kemi Badenoch at minus 23, Sir Ed Davey at minus 10, and Nigel Farage at minus 7.

Starmer's drop in approval came after a string of controversies and personnel changes at Downing Street. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned amid a dispute over tax, prompting a rapid ministerial reshuffle. The prime minister dismissed Lord Peter Mandelson from his post as Britain’s ambassador to the United States over questions about ties to Jeffrey Epstein, and a senior Downing Street aide, Paul Ovenden, resigned following revelations about derogatory comments he made in 2017 about Labour MP Diane Abbott.

Reform has been pressing for electoral gains since its rebranding from rapid‑growth anti‑establishment roots, and the party's leadership has sought to capitalise on disaffection within both the Conservative and Labour ranks. Farage has predicted further defections from Conservative colleagues following Kruger's move, characterising the Conservative Party as "over" in remarks accompanying Kruger's announcement.

Caulfield, who worked in health ministerial roles and now practices as an NHS nurse, framed her defection in ideological terms, saying those on the Conservative right should look to Reform as the future. Kruger described his own defection as "personally painful" but said it was necessary because of the state of the Conservative Party.

Labour officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment on suggestions that sitting Labour MPs might defect. The Conservatives also did not issue an immediate response to Caulfield's announcement. Reform UK said the new addition strengthened its claim to represent disaffected right‑of‑centre voters and those who backed Brexit.

Political analysts cautioned that opinion polls represent snapshots in a fluctuating political environment, and that defections do not always presage broader realignments ahead of a general election. Still, the twin developments — visible gains for Reform in polling and a marked fall in public confidence in the prime minister — will add pressure on Labour as it seeks to consolidate support beyond its 2024 electoral victory.

YouGov’s survey methodology covered a representative sample of British adults and was conducted online over two days in mid‑September. The More In Common poll reporting Starmer's net rating was released in the same period and highlighted the immediate political fallout from the recent resignations and dismissals inside government.

Reform's rise in the polls and the accompanying public commentary from supporters and defectors are likely to prompt further scrutiny of party discipline within the Conservatives and of Labour's stability in government. Observers in Westminster said the coming weeks will test whether the shifts in public opinion and the parliamentary departures translate into sustained real‑world political realignment or remain episodic turbulence within a still‑fragmented party landscape.