Guinea heads into referendum with opposition largely absent

CONAKRY, Guinea — Guinea entered the final day of campaigning ahead of a referendum that could allow the coup leader to seek the presidency, with streets in the capital buzzing and supporters packed into rallies across the city. Campaign events featured Quran readings, reggae performances and prayers in support of Col. Mamadi Doumbouya, the military commander who toppled President Alpha Condé in 2021. Public and private buildings were plastered with billboards, and roads were blocked by trucks carrying supporters wearing T-shirts and boubous bearing Doumbouya’s image. What stood out on Thursday was the conspicuous absence of the opposition, a sign of the tightening political grip that has defined the transition so far. All campaigning is set to end on Friday, with no messages allowed on the final day before the vote on Sunday.

Voters will decide whether to approve a draft constitution that would mark a milestone in a transition from military to civilian rule. The referendum asks residents to vote Yes or No on the draft, which—if approved—would extend the presidential mandate from five to seven years and renew the possibility of a president serving two terms, with the presidency and other powers reconfigured accordingly. The draft also creates a Senate, with one-third of its members appointed by the president, a move supporters say would strengthen legislative oversight. In the run-up to the vote, authorities have asserted that the referendum is a step toward stability and a more formalized political system, while critics say it is a means for Doumbouya to consolidate power. Decisive questions remain as to how the measure would affect the country’s already fragile democratic landscape, and whether the electoral framework can credibly oversee the process.

Officials say the referendum will be followed by a presidential election in December, a sequence many observers say could entrench Doumbouya’s leadership if the draft is approved. The referendum is organized by a nascent body, the Directorate General of Elections, whose two heads were chosen by Doumbouya. The country, home to rich natural resources, has long endured poverty and insecurity, and the World Food Programme has noted that more than half of Guinea’s roughly 15 million people face unprecedented levels of poverty and food insecurity. The campaign has emphasized unity and continuity, while the months-long political siege has left independent media under pressure and the opposition sidelined.

At a central neighborhood rally, residents dressed in their best clothes and Doumbouya T-shirts swayed to songs that praised the military leader as “the new sun which shines over Guinea.” Kadiatou Diaby, a pepper merchant in Conakry’s bustling market, said she was moved by Doumbouya personally to vote in favor of the constitution. “I’m going to vote, and my children are also going to vote,” she said, adding that she believes the draft would bring order and progress to Guinea. Mohamed Lamine Camara, head of the neighborhood council who hosted the rally, said he supported the draft and provided refreshments, though he acknowledged he had not yet read the portion that allows Doumbouya to stand in a December election. “No one has asked me to organize any events against the new constitution,” he explained, insisting the vote was about the constitution rather than a political campaign for a specific candidate. Fanta Conte, a member of Guinea’s National Transition Council, framed the referendum as a constitutional process rather than a campaign for any individual: “Right now, it’s not the presidential election campaign, it’s the referendum campaign. So right now we’re not talking politics.” She stressed that the focus should be on strengthening the legislative branch through the Senate rather than on personal ambitions for Doumbouya.

But critics have framed the referendum as a power grab in a country where the junta has moved aggressively to tighten control over media, politics and civil society. Human Rights Watch has accused the regime of disappearing opponents and silencing critical media voices, while Reporters Without Borders has documented restrictions on social networks, radio stations, and information sites, along with attacks and arrests of journalists. Despite these concerns, private newspapers continue to publish, though literacy remains a challenge for much of the population. The government’s control over the information space has raised questions about how Guineans will access reliable information on the draft on voting day.

Opposition figures have called for a boycott of the referendum, arguing that the process lacks legitimacy and that the regime is using the draft to justify a broader political consolidation. Exiled opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo described the referendum as a “masquerade” intended to legitimize a coup d’etat, warning that the process would not produce a credible or sustainable path to civilian rule. Supporters of the referendum dismiss such criticisms as attempts to derail Guinea’s reform efforts and point to the need for stability after years of political upheaval.

The campaign environment has reflected a broader trend in West Africa, where several countries have experienced military takeovers in recent years and delays in restoring civilian rule. Guinea is part of a cluster that includes Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, where juntas have asserted control amid security challenges and governance crises. In Guinea, the junta dissolved more than 50 political parties last year as part of what it called an effort to “clean up the political chessboard.” Weeks before the referendum, the government also suspended the three main opposition parties, making it difficult for them to organize rallies or present alternative visions to the public. The result has been a political landscape in which much information about the draft and its implications is delivered through military channels, leaving large portions of the population—many of whom are illiterate or semi-literate—to rely on official messaging.

As voting day nears, the central question remains whether at least half of Guinea’s 6.7 million eligible voters will participate for the referendum to pass. The turnout threshold—50 percent—would determine whether the draft constitution takes effect and ushers in the next phase of transition toward civilian rule. If the draft is approved, Doumbouya’s role in the presidential race remains a matter of public debate, with supporters and critics watching closely to see how the new constitutional framework would shape future elections and governance in Guinea. The outcome could significantly influence Guinea’s trajectory, both domestically and in its relations with regional partners who are navigating their own transitions and security concerns. The coming weeks will reveal whether the referendum marks a step toward a durable, civilian-led government or a consolidation of power under a long-serving junta chief.