Guinea votes in referendum that could allow junta leader to run for president

Polls opened in Guinea on Sunday for a referendum on a draft constitution that could allow Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya to run for the presidency and extend his military-led rule. The vote is a key step in the country’s transition from military rule to civilian governance, with December elections planned if the constitution is approved.

Official tallies indicated about 6.7 million Guinean citizens were eligible to vote. The referendum requires a turnout of at least 50 percent to pass. Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and were scheduled to close at 6 p.m. in most areas. In Conakry, the capital, the campaign culminated in a surge of activity, with Quran readings, reggae concerts and prayers in support of Doumbouya. Supporters wearing T-shirts and boubous bearing his image gathered at neighborhood rallies. The opposition has said it was largely sidelined as campaigning was banned on Friday and Saturday, and the referendum remained visible on public and private billboards urging a “Yes” vote.

The draft constitution would create a Senate, allow independent candidates to run, and extend the presidential mandate from five to seven years, renewable twice. Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 coup, has become the central figure in the referendum campaign, though he has not publicly confirmed whether he will stand in December. Proponents argue the changes would strengthen governance and development, while critics say the ballot would entrench military authority and concentrate power in the presidency.

Even as supporters push for a vote in favor, critics warn the referendum marks another step in the junta’s consolidation of power. Rights groups have documented intimidation of opponents and constraints on media, and some analysts caution that the changes may be implemented without robust checks and balances. Kabinet Fofana, head of the Conakry-based Guinean Association of Political Sciences, suggested the direction of the constitutional changes could be positive for balance of powers, but stressed that the real challenge would be implementation and adherence to the rule of law. “The problem is not the constitution — it is rather respect for it, its applicability, and rule of law,” he said.

Rafiou Sow, president of the opposition Renewal and Progress Party, said the electorate has limited access to information about the draft. “Our activists and supporters have no knowledge of this constitution. The moment we were excluded, they were excluded,” he said, calling for a boycott of the referendum. In contrast, Tiguidanké Guirassy, a 20-year-old university graduate, attended a rally in central Conakry and said she felt inspired by Doumbouya. “In my neighborhood, we didn’t have roads,” she said. “Now, he took care of that, we have roads. He has made a lot of progress for Guinea and I hope he will continue on this path.”

Analysts noted that while the constitution could codify certain reforms, the surrounding climate remains fraught. Some observers say the changes would modernize the political framework, but others warn that the new powers could outpace the capacity of institutions to enforce accountability. Ben Daouda Sylla, a 30-year-old lawyer, offered a cautiously optimistic view: “We have seen many regimes here, but since the arrival of Doumbouya there has been change. He is doing everything possible to ensure that Guinea moves forward.”

Beyond the political maneuvering, Guinea faces persistent development challenges. The World Food Programme has highlighted ongoing poverty and food insecurity in a country with rich natural resources but a majority of citizens living under strain. Critics of the referendum argue that the focus should be on improving living conditions and the rule of law, while supporters contend that stability and infrastructure progress are prerequisites for long-term growth in West Africa—a region that has seen juntas in neighboring Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in recent years.

As polls close later today, observers will track turnout as a barometer of public engagement in a tense political environment. If the referendum passes, Guinea plans to move toward December elections under a new constitutional framework, a milestone that would shape the country’s trajectory for years to come and influence broader regional debates over military-led transitions in West Africa.