Iran begins rebuilding missile production sites hit by Israel, but key equipment appears missing

Iran appears to have begun rebuilding missile-production facilities hit by Israel during the 12-day conflict in June, according to satellite imagery analyzed by The Associated Press. While construction is underway at several sites, experts say a crucial component — planetary mixers used to blend solid fuel for missiles — remains absent or incomplete, suggesting Tehran is still wrestling with core bottlenecks as it eyes future deterrence against Israel and potential sanctions.

Two known solid-fuel missile bases lie just outside Tehran: Khojir and Parchin, with a third at Shahroud about 350 kilometers northeast. Even before the latest fighting, all three had drawn Israeli attention and were targets of airstrikes. AP analysis of Planet Labs satellite imagery taken this month shows reconstruction at Parchin and Shahroud, including mixing buildings that appear to be under repair. At Parchin, the mixing structures show signs of rebuilding, and Shahroud is undergoing similar work. The efforts underscore how central the mixing infrastructure is to a restarted solid-fuel program, which can enable faster launches compared with liquid-fueled missiles.

Experts say planetary mixers are essential because they produce a homogeneous solid propellant that improves reliability and speed. If Tehran can reacquire or replace missing mixers, the underlying infrastructure could be ready to return to higher-volume production. Iran has previously looked to China for missile-related equipment, and U.S. officials have cited Chinese firms as suppliers of propellant ingredients and other components in the past. Even so, the extent of any new Chinese assistance remains unclear, and Iran has not publicly confirmed new procurements. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Beijing is willing to use its influence to help peace and stability in the Middle East, while emphasizing sovereignty and security concerns across the region.

Satellite imagery also feeds into wider estimates of Iran’s missile program. The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a Washington think tank with ties to the Israeli military, has documented Iran’s missile activity across the war and before it. It has estimated Iran’s total missile arsenal at around 2,500, and noted that Iran fired 574 ballistic missiles at Israel during the June conflict, with 330 additional missiles launched in earlier exchanges. Analysts say those figures illustrate the scale of Iran’s deterrent capability and why any bottleneck in production would be strategically important for Tehran. Before the war, Iran was on track to produce more than 200 solid-fuel missiles per month, highlighting the potential impact of a functioning mixing operation on overall output.

Iranian officials have signaled an ongoing focus on improving its military capabilities. Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh has said Tehran is pursuing more precise and capable missiles, while President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to address the United Nations General Assembly. Tehran’s stance on negotiations with the West has long centered on deterrence and regional leverage, and officials have repeatedly asserted that any discussion about its missile program would be non-negotiable as part of broader security guarantees.

The June fighting also drew attention to potential foreign assistance networks. Syria hosts an underground ballistic missile facility near Masyaf, where satellite footage circulated showing a planetary mixer in use. Israel previously released footage of the facility following a 2024 raid. While Iranian leaders have visited Beijing recently for China’s Victory Day parade, there has been no detailed readout of what was discussed, and China’s public stance has centered on urging restraint and stability rather than confirming new military collaborations. Analysts say China could provide assistance in guidance systems and microprocessors, but the exact scope of any cooperation remains uncertain. The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese entities it pinpointed as supplying missile-propulsion ingredients, underscoring the global dimension of Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild.

Analysts caution that the speed and scale of reconstruction indicate Tehran’s prioritization of the missile program. If Iran overcomes its mixing bottlenecks, production could ramp back up to previous levels and outpace efforts to preemptively destroy facilities. Yet officials note that such a program would complicate negotiations with the West, where Tehran has long sought to preserve a deterrent while pushing for broader security assurances. In the near term, Iran’s leadership faces the dual challenge of maintaining deterrence amid sanctions pressure and avoiding escalations that could trigger another round of conflict with Israel.

The Associated Press, which conducted the analysis of the imagery and interviewed experts, emphasizes that the ground truth remains uncertain and subject to change as Iran continues to rebuild. The AP did not receive a response from Iran’s mission to the United Nations about the rebuilding efforts. The broader geopolitical context remains highly fluid, with sanctions clock ticking and regional authorities watching for any signs of renewed aggression or restraint. The ongoing discussion about Tehran’s missile program and its potential to alter regional security dynamics will continue to unfold as international diplomacy moves forward.