Iranian Crackdown Intensifies as Nobel Laureate Mohammadi Is Detained and Filmmaker Panahi Is Sentenced

Security forces in Iran detained Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi on Friday, dragging her by the hair into a waiting vehicle as she attended a memorial service in Mashhad for a human rights lawyer found dead in unclear circumstances. Witnesses described a chaotic scene that included tear gas and baton blows as mourners fled. Mohammadi, a longtime activist who has spent much of the past two decades in Tehran’s Evin Prison, has been on medical furlough for the last year and has repeatedly called for greater freedoms and a peaceful path to democracy. She was not alone; at least nine other activists were taken into custody during the service.

Hours after news of Mohammadi’s detention circulated, Tehran sentenced Jafar Panahi, the acclaimed filmmaker who has won the Palme d’Or and multiple Gotham Awards, to one year in prison and a two-year travel ban in absentia, accusing him of “propaganda activities” against the regime and banning him from membership in political and social groups. Panahi’s sentencing coincided with continued international recognition for his latest work, including multiple Gotham Awards trophies awarded for his film, It was Just an Accident. He has said he plans to return to Iran to pursue his Academy Award campaign. ;

The arrests and the Panahi ruling reflect a broader pattern of repression that authorities have intensified as the Islamic Republic confronts a political and economic crisis that experts say is wearing away its legitimacy. Since the 12-day war with Israel in June, Iranian security forces have detained thousands suspected of spying or dissent, including journalists, activists and ordinary citizens. The United Nations and other observers estimate that more than 1,000 people have been executed in this period, underscoring a campaign of fear meant to deter organizing and social venting. Internet blackouts have become routine, and the security apparatus has stretched its resources in what many analysts describe as a race against the clock to prevent a renewed wave of protests. The regime’s leaders are framing these actions as necessary for national security, but observers say they reflect a leadership increasingly anxious about its grip on power. The war with Israel was expected to demonstrate Tehran’s deterrence, but Israeli strikes targeted senior Revolutionary Guards leaders, damaged nuclear and military facilities, and exposed gaps in Iran’s air defenses. Iran’s regional proxies, from Hezbollah to Hamas, have suffered setbacks that have undermined Tehran’s long-standing narrative of strategic influence. In this context, the regime is relying on hardline repression to stem a growing sense of grievance inside the country, even as it acknowledges the cost to its international standing.

The economy and the environment compound the regime’s vulnerability. After years of inflation, the rial collapsed to roughly 1.3 million to the dollar in December. In October, parliament approved a monetary overhaul that would lop off four zeros from the currency to simplify transactions and spare Iranians the indignity of carrying bricks of cash. Inflation hovered around 40 percent, while meat and other staples surged in price by more than 50 percent in the past year. On top of economic woes, Iran is confronting what officials describe as its worst drought in half a century. Reservoirs around Tehran sit at roughly 10 percent capacity, and President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that the capital could face evacuation if rains fail to materialize.

A grim history of repression hangs over current events. Since the 1979 revolution, the regime has used executions, arrests and censorship to quell dissent, most recently targeting intellectuals, artists and activists during the Green Movement in 2009 and the Woman, Life, Freedom protests in 2022. The latest drive comes as the regime faces the prospect of a transition in leadership after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has led Iran since 1989, nears the end of his term. Khamenei’s health and age have long fueled speculation about succession, with discussions centered on possible successors including Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, and Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Iran’s founder. A clerical committee is accelerating its search for a successor, and the regime appears to fear that any transition could unleash new waves of public sentiment that threaten its ability to govern. The arrests of Mohammadi and Panahi, both prominent international voices, carry diplomatic costs but also a domestic signal: no one is untouchable, and the leadership will not hesitate to enforce its version of order even as it acknowledges the risk of fueling more protests.

Analysts say the regime’s approach seeks to delay a reckoning by instilling fear, raising the cost of dissent and limiting public platforms. But the same coercive measures threaten to erode what little legitimacy remains for a regime that cannot guarantee reliable electricity, stable prices, or adequate water, much less broad political participation. Some officials and observers say protests are likely inevitable, and that the regime’s best chance to weather a crisis may lie in preventing mass mobilization rather than in pacifying isolated incidents. Internationally, there are calls for accountability through targeted sanctions, potential legal action at the International Criminal Court, travel bans and asset freezes for officials implicated in abuses. The broader challenge for Tehran is whether repression can be sustained long enough to bridge the gap to a potential leadership transition without provoking an irreversible rupture with the Iranian people.

If sustained repression continues to lose legitimacy at home, the regime could face a deeper legitimacy crisis that neither sanctions nor security measures can fully address. Some observers warn that an unchecked crackdown risks triggering wider regional and civilian repercussions, including an exodus of Iranians seeking safety abroad. The international community has a role in pressuring Tehran to pursue accountability while also preparing humanitarian and political pathways that can help those who choose to leave or reform from within. The coming months will be telling as Iran confronts simultaneous pressures from the economy, the environment, and a populace increasingly connected to a global information network that gives voice to demands for dignity and rights.