Iraq's political future in limbo as factions vie for power

Iraq's political future remains in limbo as factions jockey to form a government after November's parliamentary election, which failed to produce a decisive majority. The result has set in motion weeks, and potentially months, of negotiations as parties weigh competing security needs, public services, and economic reforms against growing influence from armed groups and regional powers.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition emerged as the largest bloc in the chamber, winning the most seats overall and performing strongly in Baghdad and several provinces. The Coordination Framework, a coalition dominated by Iran-backed Shiite parties that has long been the largest parliamentary bloc, captured 187 seats. Sunni groups won 77, Kurdish groups 56, and nine seats were reserved for minority groups. Al-Sudani's Alignment won 46 seats, giving it the strongest showing but not a majority, which means the next government will depend on broader coalitions. That need for coalition-building comes as Iraq faces a fragile economy, a security environment with armed factions, and external pressures from regional and international actors. The result underscores how the absence of a ruling majority makes governance in Baghdad more precarious and more dependent on balancing diverse and often competing interests.

Observers say it is unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support al-Sudani for a second term, given that the coalition would prefer a prime minister who can be tightly controlled and who does not pursue an autonomous political agenda. Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation, notes that any prime minister must be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States, two countries with substantial influence over Iraq, as well as to Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Jiyad cautions that a prime minister who seeks to consolidate power could provoke backlash from within the Framework and from other blocs, complicating governance and reconciliation efforts across Iraq's polarized political landscape.

The question of a second term for al-Sudani is complicated by Iraq's recent political history. The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri al-Maliki, whose bid for a third term faltered amid accusations of power monopolization and alienation of Sunnis and Kurds. In this cycle, analysts say the Framework has learned from past missteps that a highly ambitious prime minister could threaten the broader coalition and the interests of outside powers that seek a stable, manageable government in Baghdad. The figure chosen to lead Iraq must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States, as well as to Sistani, and must be able to navigate a parliament where no single bloc dominates.

The election results solidified a landscape in which the Coordination Framework and allied armed groups hold substantial sway, with 187 seats for the framework and related blocs, compared with 77 for Sunni groups, 56 for Kurds, and nine for minorities. Al-Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition dominated in Baghdad and several other provinces, but even its strongest performance does not obviate the need for coalition partners. This dynamic surfaced earlier in the month when Al-Sudani's government retracted a terrorism designation against Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels — groups aligned with Iranian-backed factions — after the designation had been imposed only weeks earlier. Officials described the reversal as a corrective measure rather than a shift in policy. The absence of Muqtada al-Sadr's bloc from the vote — a deliberate boycott by the powerful Shiite cleric's movement after its own failed bid to form a government in 2021 — further reshaped the electoral landscape, shortening participation in areas where Sadr had strong influence, including parts of Baghdad and the south. A political activist and independent party official said Sadr's absence created a vacuum that rival militia-affiliated parties quickly sought to fill, highlighting how the electoral missing piece can shift leverage toward more forceful factions.

Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, marking the largest showing for militia-linked factions since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Sunni groups have sought to reorganize under a new coalition, the National Political Council, to regain influence lost in recent elections. The Kurdish ranks remain split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, with ongoing negotiations over the presidency. By convention, the presidency is held by a Kurd, while the prime minister is Shiite and the parliamentary speaker Sunni. Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court ratifying the election results (Dec. 14 in this cycle), the president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the government.

The incoming government will confront economic and fiscal hurdles even as it must stabilize security. Public debt runs high, exceeding 90 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $69 billion), and the state budget remains heavily reliant on oil revenues, despite limited diversification. Corruption remains a persistent challenge as Iraq seeks to broaden revenue sources and improve public services. At the same time, the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Islamic State but remains a potent political actor, looms large. Although the PMF is formally under the Iraqi military’s control, its factions retain significant autonomy and influence over security policy and regional alignments. In the aftermath of the Gaza war and ensuing regional tensions, some PMF-linked groups have carried out retaliatory actions against U.S. bases in the region, complicating Washington’s push for disarmament of Iran-backed groups in Iraq.

U.S. officials have stressed that any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction would face strong opposition from Washington, and have cautioned against letting militia-linked figures hold key ministries or security posts. The warnings underscore the broader strategic challenge facing Iraq: stabilize governance in a fragmented parliament while balancing competing foreign interests and domestic demands for reform. Analysts say the path forward will hinge on bridging gaps among Iran-aligned factions, U.S. policymakers, and Iraq’s Shiite clerical leadership, as well as garnering broad support across Sunni and Kurdish blocs to form a durable government that can address the country’s enduring economic and security pressures.