Iraq's political future in limbo as factions vie for power

Iraq’s political future remains in limbo as factions struggle to form a new government in the wake of a hung parliamentary vote more than a month ago. The November election did not yield a bloc with a decisive majority, pushing the deadline-driven bargaining into a protracted process that will determine who can assemble a governing coalition capable of withstanding internal divisions and external pressures.

The parliament’s makeup reflects a fragmented landscape: Shiite alliances dominated by the Iran-backed Coordination Framework won 187 seats, Sunni groups captured 77 seats, Kurdish lists 56 seats, and nine seats were allocated to minority groups. The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, won the largest share of seats in Baghdad and several other provinces with 46 seats, but his bloc’s overall tally does not secure a clear path to a majority without coalition partners. Al-Sudani himself rode into power in 2022 promising public-service improvements and a pragmatic tone aimed at keeping Iraq out of regional conflicts, but observers say his party’s ability to win reelection hinges on building a broader alliance that can command more than half the chamber.

A central question is whether the Coordination Framework, which groups Iran-backed Shiite parties, will support al-Sudani for a second term. Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation, said the framework is looking for a figure it can “control” rather than one who pursues his own ambitions. “The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn't have his own political ambitions,” Jiyad said. Al-Sudani came to power with Framework backing, but Jiyad noted that the coalition now views him as a competitor capable of consolidating power, a dynamic that complicates any bid for a second term.

The absence of Muqtada al-Sadr’s bloc from the race—Sadr’s movement led the 2021 election but boycotted this cycle—has left a political void that the Framework has moved to fill. Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist with the National Line Movement that also participated in the boycott, said Sadr’s absence altered the electoral calculus, reducing participation in areas traditionally within his sphere of influence and creating an electoral vacuum that rival militia-linked parties have attempted to exploit.

The government’s maneuvering has included shifting positions on sensitive security matters. Earlier this month, al-Sudani’s government reversed a terror designation Iraq had imposed on Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels—Iran-aligned groups allied with Iraqi armed factions—weeks after initially placing them on the list, a move seen by some insiders as a concession to political allies who rely on those networks. The maneuver underscored how fragile the balance of power remains among factions that maintain armed wings and operate with significant autonomy, even as the Iraqi state seeks to assert formal control.

U.S. officials have pressed Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups, a difficult proposition given the political resonance of those factions and Tehran’s influence in the country. Two senior Iraqi officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said Washington warned against elevating a prime minister who oversees an armed faction and urged against giving militias control over key ministries or security posts. “The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings,” said Jiyad, who added that such groups have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities and complicate decision-making at the highest levels.

The political calculus also hinges on broader regional dynamics. Observers say any prime minister must be broadly acceptable to Iran and the United States, as well as Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Analysts note that the balance among foreign interests—while not dictating domestic appointments—is a persistent constraint on who can command enough support in parliament to form a stable government.

Beyond the leadership contest, Iraq faces urgent economic and security challenges. The country carries more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars in public debt and remains heavily reliant on oil for roughly 90 percent of state revenue, even as authorities attempt to diversify. Corruption remains entrenched, complicating reform efforts and the delivery of basic services to a population that has endured years of conflict and instability. The next government will also confront how to integrate the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of militias that helped defeat the Islamic State but has since been fighting for influence and resources as they operate with substantial autonomy.

Iraq’s parliamentary timetable adds pressure to resolve these questions quickly. By law, the parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court ratifying the election results, a step that was completed on Dec. 14. The presidency must be filled within 30 days of the first session, and the prime minister must be named within 15 days after the president takes office, with up to 30 days allotted to form a government. In practice, those deadlines have become fluid as negotiations continue and potential coalitions take shape.

The country’s Kurdish scene remains split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, with ongoing talks that could shape the presidency. By convention, the presidency is held by a Kurd, with the prime minister typically coming from the Shiite bloc and the parliamentary speaker from the Sunni camp. The outcome of Kurdish talks and whether a compromise emerges could influence the balance of power in the next government and affect how the country navigates regional tensions and internal reform.

For now, the path forward remains uncertain. With no bloc holding a decisive majority, any government will require cross-sectarian accommodation and careful management of international ties. The choices made in the coming weeks will determine not only the leadership of Iraq but the government’s ability to address a fragile economy, a divided parliament, and a security environment shaped by both internal militias and external pressures.