ISIS-linked Attacks in Australia and Syria Signal Group's Resilience

A weekend of deadly violence linked to the Islamic State has underscored the group’s enduring reach, even after losing its territorial holdings years ago. In Syria, near Palmyra, two United States Army soldiers and an American civilian interpreter were killed in an attack that U.S. officials and the Syrian government have said was carried out by an ISIS-linked infiltrator. The following day, two men killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach, Australia, in what Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called an attack that appeared to have been inspired by ISIS. Albanese said investigators have found evidence, including ISIS flags in a vehicle seized during the investigation, that point toward the group’s influence in the assault.

The Palmyra attack and the Bondi Beach shooting illustrate how ISIS remains a global threat, despite the collapse of its so-called caliphate in 2019. Experts say the group’s power is fragmented but its ideology continues to resonate with individuals around the world. “The group’s never been defeated. That’s to say nothing about its ideology, which continues to resonate clearly with individuals around the globe,” Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, told TIME. He noted that while he does not fear ISIS on a day-to-day basis, the organization maintains influence through a network of supporters and operatives who can act with limited external guidance.

Austin Doctor, director of strategic initiatives at the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center (NCITE), described ISIS as a persistent threat that remains active across multiple regions. “The public record is clear that ISIS [is] remaining active. The related threat is not going away any time soon,” he said. “The Islamic State threat is present in its traditional base of operations in the Middle East, expanding across a growing portfolio of entrenched terrorist insurgencies in various regions of Africa, and perpetuated further by enabled and inspired attackers living in Western nations.”

In the wake of the attacks, authorities have pointed to ISIS-linked networks and the broader jihadist ecosystem as sources of both inspiration and operational support. Clarke noted that Southeast Asia has long been a “hotbed of Jihadist military” activity, citing groups such as Abu Sayyaf as examples of regional actors that have historically provided training and logistics to external operatives. The Abu Sayyaf Group, described by the office of the Director of National Intelligence as the most violent Islamic separatist group in the southern Philippines, has pursued an independent goal of establishing an Islamic state in the region. Clarke said that even with a weakened ISIS branch in Southeast Asia, the network’s capacity to influence and mobilize remains.

The Bondi Beach attackers’ movements in November, including travel to the Philippines, highlight how regional battlegrounds can intersect with Western plots. Police in New South Wales said the suspects listed the southern Philippine city of Davao as their final destination when entering the country. The Philippines Bureau of Immigration confirmed the listing, underscoring ties between local extremist ecosystems and global networks that can enable attacks far from the origin of the plot. Southeast Asia has repeatedly been cited as a fertile environment for jihadist activity, where multiple groups have carried out or inspired attacks over the years. In that broader context, experts warn that ISIS’s reach is not confined to a single theater but is maintained through a mosaic of regional franchises and sympathetic adherents.

The broader risk landscape remains complex. Clarke pointed to other recent ISIS-related violence, including a New Year’s Day attack in New Orleans in which authorities say 14 people were killed and dozens injured after a suspect rammed a vehicle into a crowd while displaying an ISIS flag in the vehicle. He said the episode underscores the potential for homegrown plots to emerge even as counterterrorism resources have been strained by competing crises. “I'm very concerned that between now and the end of the year, we could see a potential plot here in the United States,” Clarke said, while noting that resources dedicated to counterterrorism have shifted toward other priorities after two decades of global conflict.

Experts emphasize that the fight against ISIS is less about defeating a state and more about defeating a moving target. The group’s laydown of territory is a lasting defeat of a once-dominant political project, but its decentralized franchise model allows for inspiration, funding, and tactical guidance to emerge again when conditions align. Dr. Austin Doctor of NCITE summarized the trajectory: ISIS will continue to operate in its traditional strongholds in the Middle East while attempting to expand through affiliated insurgencies in Africa and through sympathizers in Western countries. The organization’s resilience, he added, stems as much from ideology as from its ability to adapt to evolving security environments and to exploit global disruptions.

As authorities pursue investigations in multiple jurisdictions, the incidents will likely prompt renewed scrutiny of how the Islamic State and its allies sustain influence across borders. Officials have stressed that the immediate priority is to identify and disrupt active networks while preserving public safety. The evolving threat picture, marked by high-profile attacks in diverse regions, reinforces the need for ongoing vigilance, international cooperation, and robust counterterrorism measures that can adapt to a shifting landscape.