Kremlin envoy warns NATO: shooting down Russian planes would trigger war as tensions rise over airspace incursions

A Kremlin envoy warned that shooting down Russian planes would trigger war as tensions over airspace incursions across Europe escalate. Alexey Meshkov, Russia's ambassador to France, told RTL that such an act would amount to war and emphasized that Moscow does not engage in provocative actions. He said Moscow does not shoot down NATO aircraft that violate Russian airspace, whether deliberate or accidental, arguing that the West has misled Moscow on many occasions.

The warning follows a string of incidents that have raised alarms across Europe. Estonia reported a violation of its airspace by three Russian fighter jets on Friday, and Poland said it had downed at least three Russian drones during attacks on Ukraine earlier this month. That incident marked the first time Russian drones were shot down over NATO territory since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, prompting Prime Minister Donald Tusk to warn of the closest risk to open conflict since World War II. European officials described Moscow’s actions as deliberate provocations, and NATO scrambled fighter jets in response to several incursion events. Romania also reported a Russian drone breach days later.

Poland’s government is moving to loosen rules on how it can respond to threats near its borders. The defence ministry submitted a proposal to replace a restrictive policy with a so‑called shoot‑first approach, intended to give the military more flexibility when facing threats. The plan would allow Warsaw to down Russian drones over Ukraine without first seeking approval from NATO or the European Union. The proposal, submitted in June, has been fast-tracked as part of efforts to bolster Poland’s airdefense posture amid rising tensions along Poland’s eastern flank. Polish Prime Minister Tusk stressed the need to defend Poland’s airspace and said allies must act in lockstep, while noting that action should be carefully considered in cases that are not entirely clear-cut, such as certain flights near the Petrobaltic platform where waters are not territorial. He added that Warsaw would need assurance that all NATO members would respond in the same way if a broader conflict emerged.

International attention shifted toward military movements off Europe’s coast as the United Kingdom kept a watchful eye on Russian naval traffic. The Royal Navy shadowed the heavily armed frigate RFN Neustrashimy and a supporting freighter, Sparta IV, as they moved through the North Sea and the English Channel. HMS Iron Duke and a Wildcat helicopter tracked the vessel, a routine but increasingly common operation as Moscow has sent more ships through British waters. Defence Minister Luke Pollard said Russian warships are increasingly transiting the English Channel and stressed that the Royal Navy and NATO stand ready to deter aggression and protect essential sea lanes and undersea cables. The episode underlined a broader sense within NATO that Russia is testing the alliance’s readiness and resolve.

The Trump administration’s stance on NATO airspace protections also fed into the regional dynamic. During a speech at the United Nations, U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that NATO members could shoot down Russian aircraft infringing on their airspace, a position that further underscores the demand for a united and robust alliance response to Russia’s activities in neighboring airspace and over the region’s skies. The remarks, coming amid a flurry of air and sea incidents, have fed a perception that Moscow’s actions could push the alliance toward a sharper response sooner rather than later.

As the incidents accumulate, officials and defence planners caution against reading the events as isolated episodes. They describe a trend of increased drone activity, airspace violations, and maritime movements that could complicate crisis management in a densely populated, alliance-centric region. Polish policymakers in particular have argued that a more assertive posture is needed to deter further incursions and to reassure European partners that collective defence remains credible. NATO allies have repeatedly stated their commitment to defend every inch of allied territory, while stressing that any escalation would be a collective decision.

In this tense climate, the central question for many governments remains whether Russia seeks to test the alliance’s boundaries or to force concessions through a display of capability and willingness to escalate. Moscow has repeatedly denied direct responsibility for some drone incursions and has attributed many incidents to malfunctions or external manipulation. Analysts note that, as incidents accumulate, so too does the risk of misinterpretation or inadvertent escalation, particularly if a downing or a mistaken strike occurs near contested airspace or critical maritime routes. The coming weeks are expected to determine whether the alliance maintains restraint or opts for a more assertive, coordinated response to deter further provocations.