Labour faces brutal poll headwinds as Reform eyes power at crunch conference

Keir Starmer opened the Labour Party conference facing a wave of bad polling, with new data suggesting Reform could win a commanding majority if voters went to the polls now. More in Common’s analysis using an MRP model projects Reform on 373 seats, leaving Labour around 90 MPs and the Conservatives in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. The figures, shared with activists in Liverpool, underscore the scale of the challenge as Labour seeks to reset its campaign ahead of the next vote.

Ipsos Mori, meanwhile, put Starmer’s personal ratings at the lowest level for a prime minister since comparable records began in 1977, with a net score of minus 66. The premier told The Sunday Times, "I think we can pull this round." Amid speculation that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could seek a Westminster return to oust him, Starmer urged a focus on purpose over internal disputes, saying, "We don’t have time for navel-gazing." [Image insertion here for context] Amid frenzied speculation that Burnham could seek a return to Westminster, Starmer warned about the dangers of introspection, insisting the party must stay focused on delivering for voters.

More in Common’s MRP poll, conducted with a sample of 20,000 Brits between August 8 and September 15, maps characteristics of voters to estimate results in every constituency. It found Mr Farage could enter No 10 with a majority of 96, while Labour would be reduced to just 90 seats and the Tories pushed into fourth behind the Liberal Democrats. The model’s projections were even more dramatic than a separate YouGov reading last week, which suggested Reform would be the largest party but short of an overall majority. Separately, the poll of Labour’s record in government indicated the party’s failures – including exits of Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson – have cut through with the public more than Labour’s government achievements.

Labour’s leadership has sought to shift focus to its policy agenda as a bulwark against voters drifting toward Reform. A party briefing notes that a wave of housebuilding is central to Labour’s commitment, with the government promising to unleash a wave of new towns to accommodate growth. Housing Secretary Steve Reed outlined plans for three early sites before the next election: Tempsford in Bedfordshire, Leeds South Bank, and Crews Hill in north London, while indicating there could be a total of 12 new towns pursued as part of a broader housing strategy.

Meanwhile, Labour’s approach to border policy and migration reform was placed at the forefront by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. She told The Sun on Sunday that if Labour fails to secure secure borders, there will be more division in the country. Mahmood backed tougher rules around indefinite leave to remain and argued for tying ILR status to the wider contribution a migrant makes to their community, while also signaling reform to human rights laws by Christmas to facilitate deportations of illegal migrants. She stressed that legal migration remains welcome when tied to civic contributions and the needs of public services.

Sir Keir arrived at the conference with his wife, Victoria, in attendance as Labour navigates a turbulent political moment. The party is contending with internal and external pressures, including the publicized departures of senior figures, and faces questions about its ability to counter Reform’s rise while delivering on its own promises. Starmer has repeatedly warned against excessive self-criticism, urging unity and sustained effort: "It’s the fight of our times and we’ve all got to be in it together. We don’t have time for introspection; you’ll always get a bit of that at a Labour Party conference, but that is not going to solve the problems that face this country."

The conference opens at a moment when the political environment across the United Kingdom is marking a sharp tilt toward Reform in polling, with Labour’s fortunes closely watched as the party outlines its policy priorities and attempts to stabilize public support ahead of the next general election.