Labour slips in Lord Ashcroft poll as UK parties jostle for left-right balance

A new update from Lord Ashcroft Polls shows Labour continuing to fall back in the national mood, trailing Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens as the political calendar edges toward the New Year. The poll reflects a broad set of concerns cited by voters, including winter fuel policy, immigration, economic stagnation, and a push by Labour toward positions seen as to the left of the political mainstream. The aggregate result places Labour in fourth place among the major political groupings, a signal that the party’s handling of domestic priorities and its stance on taxation and welfare are influencing voter allegiance just as the holiday season narrows attention to leadership and policy detail.

In January, Ashcroft notes, the combined vote for the Conservative Party and Reform stood at 45 percent, while the Left — Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru — attracted 55 percent. The latest tally shows the Right nudging up to about 47 percent and the Left down to around 53 percent. In practical terms, the shift represents a modest rebalancing rather than a wholesale realignment, but it carries strategic implications for how Labour and its opponents calibrate policy and messaging. The data reinforce that voters see Labour as the main vehicle of the Left, yet there is concern across the spectrum about the party’s direction and its appeal to center-right voters who previously helped form a governing coalition by abstaining from or splitting their votes.

Labour’s core problem, the analysis suggests, is less about a mass exodus to one alternative and more about a consolidation challenge: to prevent its own vote from fragmenting toward multiple left-leaning options and thereby opening space for conservative or reformist challengers to gain ground. The party’s policy signals in recent months — including measures to raise taxes on working people to fund additional welfare programs and a reversal on the two-child benefit cap — are framed by supporters and critics as strategic moves aimed at shoring up left-leaning backing while signaling openness to a broader electoral coalition. Critics argue the shifts risk alienating moderate voters who helped Labour secure a parliamentary edge in the past, while supporters contend the moves reflect a necessary recalibration to confront a rightward drift in the broader political environment.

Analysts note Labour has signaled a willingness to reexamine aspects of Brexit and has floated recognizing a Palestinian state, among other moves intended to appeal to a more cosmopolitan, reform-minded electorate. The ambition, as described by Ashcroft’s reporting, is not simply to win back traditional Labour voters but to prevent a migration of those voters toward other left-leaning or nationalist options. As 2025 unfolds, observers will watch how much of Shabana Mahmood’s immigration agenda — described as a tightening of rules aimed at addressing border concerns — translates into law and how it affects Labour’s standing with a key subset of its base.

The dynamic on the Right remains intensely contested, although Nigel Farage appears less in the limelight amid other political developments. Voters still view Farage as a potential disruptor who could influence the country’s trajectory, but his profile in current coverage underscores the risk and the potential reward for the right if his rhetoric mobilizes conservative-leaning voters without alienating centrists. In this context, Labour’s team is trying to prevent a slide that would fragment the Left and enable a Conservative- or Reform-led coalition to gain a durable foothold.

Kemi Badenoch has emerged as a standout figure within the Conservative orbit, rising in perceived competence on fiscal and economic questions following a strong Budget response. Her growing profile aligns with a broader Conservative strategy to present clear, economically grounded policy positions while navigating a delicate left-right balance. Reform continues to position itself as a reform-oriented challenger, yet its economic credibility remains a focal point of comparison with the Conservatives, particularly among voters who see the budgetary emphasis as central to judging party competence.

The polling also highlights party interdependencies and the complexity of voter loyalties. Among Reform voters, roughly one third would back a non-Tory opponent if Reform were not standing in a given race, while more than half of current Conservative supporters indicate a second-choice preference for parties other than Reform — with Lib Dems and Ed Davey among the options cited by some voters. Those cross-pressures suggest the potential for tactical voting to reshape outcomes in marginal constituencies, complicating any straightforward expectation of a party-led landslide or a predictable Left-Right swing. For Labour, the takeaway is clear: prevent vote-splitting on the Left, preserve core support, and avoid allowing a compound opposition to coalesce in ways that could threaten the party’s claim to be the principal vehicle of the left-leaning electorate.

Looking ahead to the New Year, observers will be watching for tests of how much of Labour’s leftward tilt — and its willingness to entertain policy items traditionally associated with Reform or the Lib Dems — translates into legislative outcomes. Will Shabana Mahmood’s immigration plan, framed by some as pandering to a particular voter segment, actually become law, or will compromises pull the policy back toward the party’s broader electoral calculus? And will the right’s attempt to recast its own message around economic stewardship and nationalist-leaning concerns produce a durable alternative to Labour’s platform?

In this environment, Labour’s challenge is to preserve its leftist coalition while maintaining broad appeal across a diverse electorate, and to do so without ceding ground to rivals who could fragment the opposition. The Right’s job is to articulate a coherent alternative that can attract support from disaffected left-leaning voters without pushing away traditional conservatives. As the year turns, the poll indicates both sides are recalibrating with the same essential problem: a sizeable portion of the electorate remains open to multiple paths, and the party that can credibly address core concerns while avoiding self-inflicted divisions may still dominate the center of political gravity. Lord Ashcroft’s ongoing research, which he shares at LordAshcroftPolls.com, will be watched closely for any new shifts as the political calendar moves through 2025.