Lammy bets Labour could hold power for a record 22 years this century

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said he would go to the bookies and put money on Labour to have more than 22 years in power in the 21st century, telling delegates at the Global Progress Action summit in London that Labour should aim high. Lammy, who is also the justice secretary, argued the party could surpass the length of time Labour governed in the 20th century and pointed to the postwar rebuilding period as a proof that a progressive government can endure even amid hardship. He drew Attlee’s example to argue for confidence, saying Labour should stay united in serving working people and not shy away from difficult fights.

Lammy also said the Labour Party led by Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had a “powerful sense of rebuilding public services after the Thatcher/Major period.” He noted that Labour’s 20th-century time in office lasted 22 years, and he asserted that the party could exceed that in the current century. “Already in the 21st, we’re on course to get about 14-15 [years],” he said. “We’re going to get more than 22. That I would go to the bookies and put money on.” He urged attendees to stay united on behalf of working people to retain voters’ trust and spoke of the need for progressive forces to pick “serious fights” rather than avoiding confrontation with political opponents.

In parallel, Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged that Labour was facing a difficult stretch and warned that the next election would be “very different” and an “open fight” with Reform UK. He framed the choice before voters as not necessarily a straightforward Labour-versus-Conservative contest and said Labour would need to rebuild the country in a way that appeals beyond traditional strongholds. He suggested the party would be judged on whether it could repair the damage done by the previous government and on whether ordinary families felt their lives were improving under Labour stewardship.

A YouGov megpoll released around the same time used a nationwide model to estimate constituency results and painted a striking picture of a Reform surge. The poll projected Reform would win about 311 MPs, a tally near an overall majority once nonvoting members are excluded, effectively signaling a historic breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s new bloc. Labour would lose more than 250 seats on its current tally, and the Conservative Party would fall to fourth behind the Lib Dems with around 45 MPs. The take ranks Reform’s national vote at roughly 27 percent, with Labour at 21 percent, the Conservatives at 17 percent, and the Lib Dems at 15 percent. The Greens were pegged at 11 percent, with the SNP at 3 percent and Plaid at 1 percent. The YouGov model underscored how far electoral dynamics could shift if voters translated national shares into seat outcomes, noting that technically 326 MPs are needed for an overall majority, though the Speaker and Sinn Fein MPs do not vote, lowering the practical threshold.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer used the same summit to push a reframed, center-left narrative. He argued that the election would not resemble the traditional Labour-versus-Conservative contests of recent decades and that Labour would need to rebuild with a focus on national renewal and social cohesion. He warned that many center-right parties in Europe had withered, a trend he said could be mirrored in the UK if reformist energy was not harnessed effectively. He also stressed the need to address the country’s long-run economic and social challenges and to prepare for trade-offs that come with ambitious policy plans.

The policy climate at the summit also included scrutiny of Labour’s digital ID proposal. The Prime Minister officially unveiled the plan, describing it as an opportunity to tackle illegal work and irregular migration; however, ministers have publicly debated whether the digital IDs would be mandatory, and questions persisted about potential discrimination against people without smartphones. The controversy has complicated the government’s messaging as it seeks to present a strong, tech-enabled approach to border and immigration controls while balancing concerns over civil liberties and practicality.

Rachel Reeves, who appeared on a panel with Starmer, acknowledged a compelling argument that immigration has influenced living standards, but she pushed back against simplistic cures. Reeves cautioned that immigration policy intersects with broader economic decisions and that there are trade-offs between taxation, welfare, and debt. She defended Labour’s fiscal approach, insisting there are limits to what can be spent and arguing that responsible governance requires balancing competing priorities rather than promising easy fixes. Reeves also pushed back on calls to relax fiscal rules or raise taxes as automatic responses to shifted economic circumstances, urging a careful, plan-driven stance.

The party faces internal tensions ahead of its annual conference, including debates over how aggressively to tackle the two-child benefit cap. By July of the previous year, seven Labour MPs had the party whip suspended after backing an SNP motion to end the cap; several had the suspension lifted months later, while one member, Zarah Sultana, resigned to co-found a left-wing splinter. Those episodes have contributed to a sense of mutinous energy within Labour’s ranks, an issue Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has publicly described as alienation and demoralisation. Burnham has been described as a potential challenger by some MPs, though he has urged a northern focus and dismissed any immediate leadership bid.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, meanwhile, signaled continued discipline around public finances, warning that policies would need to balance tax and spending. Reeves and other Labour figures emphasized that the party’s next steps would be driven by a pragmatic assessment of trade-offs rather than pure slogans. The conference is set to be a testing ground for how Labour tries to unify its broad coalition of voters while confronting a potential realignment of Britain’s political landscape that could be shaped by Reform’s unexpected strength and a rapidly shifting public mood.