Lammy bets Labour could stay in power for two decades, as poll signals Reform surge

London — Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said he would go to the bookies and put money on Labour to be in power longer this century than any other party, signaling confidence as Labour debates its future at a Global Progress Action summit in London. Lammy, who is also justice secretary, argued Labour could exceed 22 years in power in the 21st century, recalling Clement Attlee’s postwar rebuild of public services and insisting Labour could keep voters’ trust for years to come.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged Labour was facing headwinds and cautioned that the next election would be very different, describing it as an open fight with Reform UK. Lammy, meanwhile, stressed the party’s responsibility to reconnect with working people and rallied attendees to stay united as Labour weighs its path forward. He cited Labour’s past generations in power and the party’s record on public services as a guide for the future, while conceding successes of the Blair/Brown era were not a guarantee of another long tenure.

Lammy also pressed the party to “pick fights” that define values and demonstrate whom Labour stands with, telling progressives to be clear about who is on their side and to avoid a complacent approach. He argued that Labour’s opponents were not shy about clashes, while Labour tended to retreat into relative quiet, urging a more assertive stance on issues such as identity cards and the role of the state in public services.

Separately, the YouGov/MRP projection presented at the summit depicted a dramatic reshaping of Parliament if voters went to the polls today. Reform UK was forecast to command the largest share of constituencies, with the party possibly altering the political map in a way unseen in modern British history. The poll suggested Reform could approach the high-water mark of about 311 MPs—effectively a near-majority under the existing rules, though the formal majority threshold would depend on nonvoting members such as the Speaker and Sinn Féin. Labour was projected to suffer a substantial seat loss, while the Conservative Party would fall to a historical low, with Lib Dems and smaller parties filling remaining space. The national vote shares indicated Reform at roughly 27%, Labour around 21%, the Tories around 17%, and the Lib Dems about 15%, with Greens at 11% and smaller parties at remaining levels.

Prime Minister appeared on stage alongside Labour figures, arguing that the next election would not resemble prior contests in Britain and framing the choice as a contest between Labour and Reform. He contended that many centre-right parties in Europe had shrunk, a trend he said the UK must meet with a bold political repositioning. Starmer, for his part, pressed the need to repair damage from the previous administration and to rebuild in a way that engages voters on issues of national identity, security, and the economy, while acknowledging the challenge of reviving public confidence.

Other figures at the summit highlighted the economic tensions shaping policy decisions. Rachel Reeves, speaking on a panel with Starmer, acknowledged concerns that immigration could influence living standards but pushed back against simplistic remedies. Reeves argued there were legitimate trade-offs between taxation, spending, and debt and warned against retreating from tough policy decisions, noting that no party could promise unlimited spending without consequences.

Labour’s annual conference looms as the party wrestles with internal debates over policy direction, including opposition to the two-child benefit cap. Seven Labour MPs faced disciplinary actions last year for backing an SNP motion to end the cap, though several had the whip reinstated in subsequent months. The party’s leadership has also faced questions over accountability surrounding major donors and the donor-recipient pathways within affiliated organizations as it campaigns on economic and social policy issues.

In the north of England, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham signaled intra-party tensions by arguing that some MPs want him to challenge the prime minister, a claim that has added to the sense of churn and debate ahead of the conference. Burnham, who has long floated leadership ideas, suggested he would need to resign as mayor and win a Westminster seat if he were to pursue a leadership bid, a path that would require broad cross-party support and nominations from Labour MPs.

As Labour braces for a high-stakes conference and a volatile electoral environment, the party faces a delicate balance between projecting optimism about rebuilding public services and confronting skepticism about its ability to translate past successes into a durable, long-tenured government. The political landscape remains unsettled, with far-reaching reforms and a reordering of party loyalties likely to define the summer and autumn political calendars at home and in parliament.