LDP opens race to pick Ishiba successor as party seeks political stability

TOKYO — The Liberal Democratic Party opened official campaigning Monday to choose a successor to outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, signaling the party’s attempt to restore political stability and voter support after a year of losses. The campaign kicks off as five candidates, all incumbent or former cabinet ministers, present competing visions for reviving the party’s appeal and guiding Japan through a difficult domestic and regional environment. The party has framed the contest with a slogan: Change, LDP.

The Oct. 4 leadership vote is not a public ballot. It is limited to 295 LDP lawmakers in parliament and nearly 1 million dues-paying grassroots members, a pool that represents less than 1 percent of Japan’s eligible voters. A candidate who secures a majority in the first round will become party leader, and, by extension, prime minister. If no one wins a majority, the top two will face a runoff. Even if the winner becomes party leader, securing votes from opposition lawmakers in a parliamentary leadership vote held within days will be necessary for formal ascent to the premiership, underscoring the need for cross-party cooperation in a chamber where the ruling coalition now lacks a comfortable majority.

The five candidates are seen as moderates within the conservative spectrum and have signaled willingness to work with opposition groups in a bid to stabilize policy and governance. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, is a high-profile contender and the son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. He has framed his bid as a pledge to rebuild trust in the party and to listen more closely to people’s concerns, including rising prices, demographics, immigration and public safety. If chosen, he would be among the youngest leaders in modern Japanese history.

Sanae Takaichi, 64, a close ally of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, is known for hawkish rhetoric on security matters and her revisionist stance on wartime history. She supports increased public spending for growth and a stronger military posture, and she advocates traditional family values. Takaichi has said she would pursue policies that balance economic expansion with a robust defense, while also opposing a female emperor and opposing a civil-law reform that would give married couples the option of keeping separate surnames.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, the chief cabinet secretary under Ishiba’s government, is described as a steady, moderate candidate who emphasizes wage growth, a strong economy and defense. A Harvard-educated veteran of foreign, defense and education ministries, Hayashi is fluent in English and has presented himself as a technocratic option who can reassure markets and international partners alike. He also highlights public-facing leadership through approachable diplomacy and steady policy implementation.

Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, a former foreign minister and trade negotiator, is another Harvard-educated veteran of diplomacy and commerce. Motegi has framed the United States–Japan alliance as central to Japan’s security and economic interests, stressing the need to deepen the relationship of trust with Washington and to deliver on defense and security commitments amid a shifting regional balance.

Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, a former economic security minister, runs on a platform of stronger growth, defense and national unity. Known in political circles as a hardliner on immigration and defense spending, Kobayashi argues for tighter controls on foreign workers and an aggressive defense posture, arguing that Japan’s 2% of GDP defense target is insufficient for the country’s security needs. If Kobayashi’s or Takaichi’s path advances, it could split conservative votes and complicate coalition-building dynamics.

The campaign is playing out as the ruling coalition has faced losses in recent elections and as opposition groups struggle to present a united front. Analysts say cooperation with key opposition forces—the Japan Innovation Party, Ishin (Osaka Ishin), and the Democratic Party for the People—will be critical for achieving parliamentary feasibility for any of the candidates should they reach the prime ministership. Some candidates have already indicated outreach: Koizumi has engaged with Ishin and attended Osaka Expo events, Hayashi has met with senior Ishin lawmakers, and Motegi has signaled a willingness to form coalitions with Ishin and related parties in pursuit of policy aims.

The leaders’ differing priorities reflect competing responses to immediate crises and long-standing governance challenges. The candidates have emphasized the economy and immigration safeguards, but they diverge on how aggressively to pursue defense spending, how to balance civil liberties with security, and how to handle Japan’s relationships with neighboring powers, especially China and North Korea. Takaichi’s stance could complicate ties with Beijing and Seoul, given her history and positions on wartime history and regional security. Koizumi’s willingness to engage more deeply with the public and his emphasis on listening to citizens’ concerns contrast with Kobayashi’s more conservative, security-focused approach, while Hayashi projects steadiness and a technocratic path that could appeal to business and international partners.

Analysts note that the party’s ability to govern effectively in a changing security environment may hinge on cross-party cooperation. The political landscape in Japan remains heavily tilted in favor of the LDP, but the loss of a simple coalition majority in the Diet underscores the need for moderate policy consensus and the ability to secure import and export commitments, energy policy, and social stability in a time of rising prices and evolving global tensions. Cooperation with opposition groups, while not guaranteed, could help shield the country from frequent leadership churn and policy vacuums that have characterized recent years.

Beyond Tokyo’s campaign floor, the vote’s outcome could influence how Japan navigates economic pressures, security commitments, and diplomacy with regional powers. The next prime minister, regardless of which candidate emerges, will face an urgent menu of tasks: dampen inflationary pressures, stabilize supply chains, manage border and immigration policy, and maintain a credible defense posture in a region where alliance dynamics with the United States are likely to evolve. The party’s leadership decision will ripple through budgets, foreign policy, and domestic governance in the months ahead, setting the tone for how Japan positions itself amid a shifting global order.

As the clock ticks toward the Oct. 4 vote, the candidates will attempt to translate campaign promises into a coherent governing platform capable of attracting cross-party support while addressing voters’ immediate concerns. The path to stability for the ruling party—and for Japan—will depend on whether the winner can secure the political capital necessary to build durable consensus in parliament, deliver on pledges to curb rising prices, and maintain a credible defense and foreign policy stance that resonates with both domestic constituents and international partners.