London hit hardest as pupil numbers fall across England, EPI finds

London is experiencing a sharp decline in primary pupil numbers, with a low birth rate and families moving out of the capital contributing to a sustained downturn. An Education Policy Institute analysis found that since 2019 the city has shed about 150,000 primary pupils, and the institute projects a further drop of as many as 400,000 pupils across England by the end of the decade. Nine of the 10 local authorities with the largest declines over recent years are in London, and inner-city boroughs have tracked the steepest changes. Because school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis, shrinking rolls translate directly into budgetary pressures for schools, raising concerns about future closures and cuts in services.

The study highlights a long-standing demographic shift and its potential consequences for system planning, with Westminster reporting almost a 16% fall in primary pupil numbers from 2020-21 to 2024-25, and Southwark seeing declines of more than 12% over five years. The number of primary schools in Southwark has fallen by six in that period. Across England, about 17% of pupils who started reception in 2012-13 had left the city by Year 6, and that figure rose to roughly 20% for pupils who began reception in 2017-18. The organizations identified the 10 local authorities with the largest five-year declines in this order: Westminster, Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Merton, Wandsworth and Redcar and Cleveland in North Yorkshire.

"Leaving the country" Jon Andrews, head of analysis and director for school system and performance at the EPI, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there had been a “post-millennium baby boom” from 2010 to 2012, but that had since reversed. He said London’s pattern appears more complicated than a simple birth-rate story: families are moving not only to neighboring authorities but also out of the state system altogether, with some opting for independent schools or relocating abroad. He noted that funding follows pupils, so shrinking rolls don’t automatically reduce costs in the same way as they reduce income. As he put it, “the same amount of money is allocated to a class of 25 as to a class of 30, but if you’re losing five pupils that could mean a fall in your school budget of around £30,000-£40,000.” The result, he cautioned, could be schools trying to educate the same curriculum with fewer resources, potentially leading to staff cuts and reduced extracurricular provision.

The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) said the findings align with what school leaders have been experiencing on the ground. General Secretary Paul Whiteman urged a joined-up strategy that centers pupils and communities, warning against knee-jerk funding cuts or school closures that would undermine stability. He called on the government to sustain investment and support local authorities to maintain staffing and resources rather than retrench in response to falling rolls.

In recent years, there has been a push to rethink how schools are funded. Former Education Secretary Damian Hinds has argued that per-pupil funding may no longer reflect the reality of falling rolls and said funding models should adapt accordingly. A Department for Education spokesperson said the department recognizes the pressures caused by demographic changes and that the system is designed to give schools greater funding certainty as planners plan ahead. The government notes that per-pupil funding for schools is at record levels and is projected to reach £69.5 billion by 2028-29. It also highlighted targeted measures, such as awarding £37 million to 300 primary schools to repurpose spare space, enabling more than 5,000 new childcare places through school-based nurseries as part of broader early-years expansion.