Megapoll puts Farage-led Reform on track for Downing Street, Labour crisis deepens

A YouGov megapoll using multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP, projects Nigel Farage's Reform party to win 311 MPs if an election were held today, potentially making him prime minister. The poll highlights a dramatic shift in British politics and the challenge for Labour and the Conservative Party.

Labour would shed more than 250 seats from its current tally, while the Conservatives would finish in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, with about 45 MPs. The Liberal Democrats would finish ahead of the Tories in third, according to the YouGov projection.

Reform's net gain of about 306 seats would be the largest seat increase for a party between general elections, the poll found. The national picture put Reform on 27 percent, Labour on 21 percent, the Conservatives on 17 percent, the Lib Dems on 15 percent, the Greens on 11 percent, the SNP on 3 percent and Plaid on 1 percent.

The report notes that with the Speaker and Sinn Fein MPs not voting, the practical majority threshold is lower than the standard 326 seats. The YouGov figures are built from a national vote-share model and a constituency-level forecast using MRP, a method that combines survey responses with district demographics to project outcomes across all seats.

The poll also flags the potential casualty list for Labour, naming figures such as Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy as possible losers under this scenario. Analysts caution that while the model is sophisticated, forecast uncertainty remains high and events between now and any election could alter the trajectory.

If realized, the result would represent a dramatic shift in British politics, reshaping the balance of power and prompting questions about governance, party strategy and policy direction at a time of broader global uncertainty.