Mexico’s Jalisco Cartel Seizes Opportunity as U.S. Fentanyl Crackdown Reshapes Drug Flows

U.S. and Mexican law enforcement say a sustained crackdown on fentanyl has altered trafficking patterns, creating a market opening that the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has moved to exploit by expanding shipments of cocaine and methamphetamine into the United States.

Federal and independent data show fentanyl-related use and deaths began to ease in mid-2023, a trend the Trump administration attributes in part to aggressive law enforcement actions. At the same time, drug-testing and toxicology firms report sharp increases in cocaine detection and use in many U.S. regions, particularly the West. Millennium Health data cited by analysts show cocaine positivity up roughly 154 percent in the West and about 20 percent in the East since 2019.

U.S. and Mexican officials, as well as independent security analysts, say the shift reflects both enforcement pressure on traditional fentanyl suppliers and strategic decisions by cartel leaders. Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho and identified by the Drug Enforcement Administration as one of the hemisphere’s most powerful traffickers, has guided CJNG toward a broader, vertically integrated enterprise that trafficks cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin and other illicit products across two continents, according to DEA assessments and Mexican officials.

With the Sinaloa cartel weakened by arrests, infighting and sustained U.S. pressure since the 2016 capture of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, CJNG has capitalized on control of ports, corridors and supply chains on Mexico’s west coast, Mexican authorities say. Tons of cocaine now arrive from South America to Pacific ports by speedboats and semi-submersible vessels and are funneled north through tunnels and overland routes originally built or used by Sinaloa, according to law enforcement accounts. Analysts and drug-checking groups report the street price and purity of cocaine have both increased, making it a more attractive product for traffickers and buyers.

"Mencho is the most powerful drug trafficker operating in the world," said Derek Maltz, a former interim chief at the DEA, adding that CJNG’s movement into cocaine markets represents a deliberate pivot triggered in part by pressure on fentanyl networks. Morgan Godvin, a researcher with Drug Checking Los Angeles, said the price of pure cocaine has fallen and availability has risen, a change that supports broader distribution efforts.

Mexican officials say Oseguera presides over an organization that acts as a parallel authority in areas it controls: taxing local businesses, operating legitimate-seeming companies, influencing municipal governments and providing social events to cultivate local support. The leader is believed to remain inside a heavily fortified mountain compound protected by armed guards; U.S. authorities have offered criminal rewards for his capture. He is listed among the FBI’s 10 most-wanted fugitives, and the U.S. Department of Justice has offered a multimillion-dollar reward for information leading to his arrest.

The cartel’s diversification extends beyond drugs. U.S. Treasury and Mexican investigators point to large-scale fuel theft, extensive wire fraud operations targeting U.S. seniors, and criminal imposition of fees on migrants traversing cartel-controlled territory as growing revenue streams. Mexican officials estimate a substantial portion of fuel sold in Mexico is illegally diverted, a practice overseen by CJNG lieutenants in some regions.

Officials in Mexico’s attorney general’s office and other security agencies say CJNG and remnants of the Sinaloa organization have reached a pragmatic arrangement in parts of Mexico. Under the reported understanding, Sinaloa focuses on synthetic opioids such as fentanyl while CJNG concentrates on cocaine and methamphetamine; the groups purportedly share access to tunnels, ports and smuggling infrastructure, and trade cash, weapons and manpower. Mexican authorities described the coordination as an unusual realignment that alters traditional rivalry dynamics.

U.S. enforcement and diplomatic actions under the Trump administration have centered on disrupting fentanyl production and trafficking, including public threats of expanded operations and support for Mexican counter-narcotics actions. Officials have pointed to recent seizures and raids, including interdictions of drug-laden speedboats and shipments, as evidence of pressure on synthetic opioid networks. U.S. and Mexican officials say some enforcement choices have had unanticipated effects, such as shifts in resource allocation at border checkpoints that, authorities contend, left some overland corridors less monitored and thus more vulnerable to exploitation by traffickers.

The change in trafficking patterns has significant public health implications. Federal and state officials warn that a rebound in cocaine availability — alongside persistent methamphetamine and heroin supplies — could produce new patterns of overdose and addiction, even as fentanyl-related deaths decline from recent peaks. Public health agencies continue to recommend expanded treatment access, harm reduction measures and coordinated international enforcement to address complex, evolving drug markets.

Law enforcement officials say CJNG’s rise will complicate efforts to reduce drug availability and cartel violence. Analysts note that a more diversified cartel revenue base — from coalitions with other criminal groups, fuel theft and fraud — can blunt the impact of targeted seizures and arrests. Mexican and U.S. authorities continue joint and unilateral operations, while signaling the need for broader strategies to disrupt trafficking networks and address demand and corruption that enable them.

As CJNG consolidates routes and sources, both countries face a shifting landscape in which the decline of one deadly product has coincided with the expansion of others, reshaping the strategic priorities of trafficking organizations and the enforcement responses intended to stop them.