Military experts: Russian drone incursions test NATO resolve as alliance bolsters eastern flank

Military experts and Western officials warned that recent Russian drone incursions into eastern Europe represent a deliberate test of NATO’s resolve and risk encouraging further hostile acts unless met with meaningful consequences.

Between Sept. 9 and Sept. 23, multiple unmanned aerial vehicles crossed into Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble a multinational force of jets and shoot down several drones, according to Polish officials. Romania and Latvia reported suspected airspace violations around Sept. 13, and Polish authorities later said a civilian drone flown over the presidential palace was a “provocation,” leading to the arrest of two Belarusians. Russia has denied targeting objects on Polish territory.

The incidents coincided with the joint Zapad military drills conducted with Belarus from Sept. 12–16, exercises that analysts say Moscow has previously used to rehearse scenarios and signal intent. International security experts cautioned that the combination of incursions and drills is being used by the Kremlin to probe Western responses and to communicate broader ambitions beyond Ukraine.

"This is a process of testing and probing and pushing the boundaries of what Russia finds is acceptable, because the West is not responding," said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow for Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House. Giles warned that if the Polish incursions do not produce a response that Moscow finds costly, the Kremlin will be encouraged to repeat and expand such operations.

Hamish de Bretton‑Gordon, a former British Army colonel, said Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to press if NATO does not show firm resolve. "NATO has suddenly woken up — or finally woken up," he said, urging the alliance to consider shooting down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine and to support a no‑fly regime for civilian targets. De Bretton‑Gordon and other commentators argued that Western air capabilities, including stealth jets, still outmatch Russian air power, which they described as diminished after more than three years of war.

Poland and other European NATO members have moved to bolster air defences in response. NATO leaders announced a joint plan dubbed "Eastern Sentry," with France, Germany and Denmark committing contributions to reinforce the alliance’s eastern frontier. The United Kingdom said it was "fully committed to playing our part" and would confirm details soon.

Russian officials pushed back. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and former president, called the Eastern Sentry mission amusing on social media and warned that attempts to impose a no‑fly zone over Ukraine or allow NATO to shoot down Russian UAVs would amount to war between NATO and Russia.

Analysts noted that Zapad drills have historically preceded larger operations, citing conflicts in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014, and said the exercises provide an opportunity for Moscow to present a rehearsed display of military capability. Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the scale of current activity is reduced compared with prior years but nonetheless signals that Russia is testing scenarios and demonstrating continued commitment to its operations in Ukraine.

Other experts cautioned against equating rhetoric with capability. Philip Ingram, a retired British Army colonel and military intelligence specialist, said the Kremlin seeks to portray a greater military threat than it actually possesses. Several analysts cited by Western sources continued to assess that, despite the provocations, Moscow lacks the forces and trained personnel to mount a large‑scale ground offensive against NATO members such as the Baltic states.

Ukrainian officials reported heavy Russian unmanned and missile attacks inside Ukraine in recent weeks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched more than 3,500 drones, over 2,500 glide bombs and almost 200 missiles at Ukrainian targets in a two‑week period. Those strikes have intensified calls from some NATO members and commentators for greater measures to protect Ukraine and NATO borders, including tighter air defences and expanded sanctions.

The United States has ruled out sending ground troops to enforce a ceasefire in Ukraine and is unlikely to deploy forces to the European‑led Eastern Sentry mission, U.S. officials said. Still, U.S. envoys signalled Washington is considering additional economic measures. Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia and a retired lieutenant general, said diplomacy, military support and economic pressure are the three lanes to bring about an end to the war, and suggested that stronger sanctions targeting Russian sovereign assets and oligarchs could be necessary.

European intelligence assessments published in recent months warned that Russia could be preparing to test NATO’s Article 5 commitment within a five‑year horizon, though that view is not universally shared. Some experts argue that the current operations are aimed primarily at domestic audiences in Russia and at undermining Western political cohesion rather than at achieving new territorial gains.

Polish officials and other NATO partners have called for clearer deterrent measures to prevent repeated incursions. Analysts urged that any Western response be calibrated to impose costs Moscow perceives as significant, to avoid normalizing hostile acts in NATO airspace. At the same time, many warned that public threats of escalation by Moscow mean Western capitals must weigh any hardline response carefully to avoid a rapid, unintended chain of escalation.

As NATO increases patrols and reinforces eastern defences, officials and experts said the incidents underline a broader strategic contest over the limits of acceptable behaviour in Europe and the alliance’s willingness to defend its members. The coming weeks are likely to shape whether Moscow views the actions as one‑off probes or as a permissible pattern of pressure on NATO’s eastern frontier.