Moldova's President Warns Independence at Risk Ahead of Key Vote as Police Arrests Highlight Kremlin Tactics

Moldova's president Maia Sandu warned that the country's independence and European future are in danger after police arrested dozens of people accused of involvement in a plot to stoke violent disorder, allegedly backed by Russia, just days before Moldova's pivotal parliamentary elections. Police across the country said they confiscated weapons and explosives in raids, and authorities allege that some of the 74 detainees had traveled to Serbia for training by Russian instructors, including with firearms.

Addressing the nation, Sandu accused the Kremlin of 'pouring hundreds of millions of euros' into Moldova in an attempt to foment violence and spread disinformation and fear. 'The Kremlin believes that we are all for sale. That we are too small to resist. That we are not a country, only a territory,' she said, adding, 'But Moldova is our home. And our home is not for sale.'

Pro-Russian parties have accused Sandu of trying to intimidate them and sway the vote. Sandu called on supporters to come out and cast their ballots on Sunday in an election in which pro-Russian forces are expected to challenge the pro-EU status quo. A high turnout, particularly among Moldova's diaspora, is seen by observers as a key factor in the result.

Moldova declared its independence after the USSR collapsed more than 30 years ago but remains home to a significant Russian-speaking population. The breakaway region of Transnistria, propped up by Moscow, still hosts Russian troops. Moscow's influence has long shadowed Moldovan politics, though Sandu's government has pushed for European integration and, last year, held a referendum to enshrine the goal of EU membership in the constitution. The referendum's margin was tight, 50.4% to 49.5%, and was accompanied by extensive evidence of Russian meddling, including cash smuggling to buy votes. Analysts note that given Moldova's small population, even a small number of votes can sway outcomes.

'With 200,000 votes it's possible to change everything: it's enough to look at the EU referendum in October, which was decided by such a small margin,' said Sergiu Panainte, deputy director of the German Marshall Fund in Bucharest. 'The fines now for selling your vote are really big but there are still people willing to do it.'

Russia's hybrid attacks are a major challenge for Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity, though opponents argue the government does not go far enough in fighting corruption. In Russian-speaking regions such as Gagauzia, some voters favor closer ties with Moscow and worry about antagonizing Russia. Sandu and her supporters reject that view, saying engagement with the EU and security guarantees are the path to Moldova's future.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova pivoted toward Europe as the primary security guarantor and accelerated steps toward EU accession, including constitutional commitment to join the bloc.

Separately, Bloomberg News reported it had reviewed documents outlining extensive Russian plans to seed unrest and influence Moldova's vote. In response, Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service issued a statement asserting that European countries were plotting a 'blatant falsification' of the result and warning that the EU could mount an armed incursion and de facto occupation. 'This is Russia openly planning for Plan B,' Panainte warned. 'If PAS do get a majority, it means they [Russia] will resort to violence and staged attacks. This is the option they are preparing for.'

Election observers say the vote will be closely watched for signals about Moldova's European trajectory and Moscow's willingness to deploy political and covert tools to influence outcomes. Sandu's government has pressed ahead with reforms and anti-corruption measures, but the security landscape remains fragile as authorities warn that Russian-backed efforts aim to destabilize the country ahead of the parliamentary ballot.