Poland, NATO scramble as Russia strikes Ukraine; Baltic states seek NATO talks

Poland and allied aircraft were deployed early Saturday to secure Polish airspace after Russia launched airstrikes targeting western Ukraine near the border, the Polish Armed Forces’ Operational Command said. Ground-based air defenses and radar reconnaissance systems were brought to the highest state of readiness, and Polish and allied air forces operated in Polish airspace in what the command called a preventative move aimed at securing areas adjacent to the threatened zone. The operation began at about 0340 GMT as air raid alerts covered nearly all of Ukraine, and it concluded shortly after 0500 GMT when Russian strikes against Ukraine subsided, according to the command.

Across Ukraine, the strikes were described in two waves, targeting infrastructure, civilian facilities and production sites. Ukrainian authorities said Russia launched roughly 580 drones and 40 missiles, with air defenses shooting down 552 drones and 31 missiles. Casualties were reported in several regions: at least one person killed in Dnipro, and two others killed in the Chernihiv and Khmelnytskyi regions. In the Kyiv region, strikes damaged homes and cars in areas including Bucha, Boryspil and Obukhiv. Ukraine also asserted it hit two Russian oil refineries, one in Novokuibyshevsk and another in the Samara region, though Moscow said it was not targeting Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. Amid the bombardment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the strikes as deliberate and aimed at terrorizing civilians and destroying critical infrastructure, calling for a stronger, more coordinated Western response. In the hours after the attacks, the country pressed its defense and prepared for potential follow-on strikes, while international partners weighed their next steps in support of Ukraine and in deterence of further Russian aggression.

The events prompted NATO and its member states to bolster presence and readiness in the region. In Poland, officials stressed that the fighter jets and air defenses were operating in a protective posture rather than in response to an immediate attack on Polish soil, emphasizing a preventative mission to secure airspace in areas adjacent to the threatened zone. The episode followed a previous Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace during a broader Ukraine attack last week, which had already triggered heightened air policing and coordination among alliance members. As the theater extended toward the Baltic, Estonia invoked Article 4 discussions with NATO after three Russian fighter jets breached its airspace, marking what Estonian leaders called an unprecedented provocation.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal and Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna demanded that NATO consults consider stronger steps to deter further incursions, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned the incursions as an extremely dangerous provocation that risks escalating tensions. Lithuanian and Baltic officials warned that Russia is testing alliance borders, urging unity and concrete measures to bolster deterrence. In London and Washington, officials noted the international community’s broader concerns about strategic signaling and the risk that repeated provocations could erode the Western coalition’s resolve. Italian F-35s were scrambled to intercept Russian MiG-31 fighters that penetrated Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island, before the Russian aircraft returned to Kremlin airspace; Russia nonetheless denied violating Estonian airspace, asserting its operations stayed within neutral Baltic Sea waters.

The Estonian incident reverberated across Europe, drawing commentary from former military leaders and intelligence officials. Sir Richard Moore, the former head of Britain’s MI6, described Putin as a liar seeking to impose his will by any means and warned that red lines must be clearly defined and enforced. RAF and NATO observers urged a unified and public articulation of red lines and responses, arguing that mere deterrence without a defined threshold risks further miscalculation. The episode also spurred calls for a stronger economic and political response from the EU and its allies to pressure Moscow while avoiding a broader confrontation.

Zelensky, speaking to international audiences, said Ukraine would pursue security guarantees and harsher sanctions as part of a comprehensive strategy to strengthen its defenses. He indicated that he would meet with the President of the United States to discuss security guarantees and additional sanctions on Russia, underscoring Ukraine’s reliance on Western support as it defends its cities and infrastructure. In Washington, U.S. officials publicly stressed the importance of a unified approach to support Ukraine, while continuing to monitor Russian military activity along Europe’s eastern flank. Amid the broader strategic tension, Ukrainian authorities said they would maintain vigilance and press for reinforced air defense systems to protect key urban centers and energy infrastructure.

The day’s developments underscored a broader pattern of Russian testing of alliance unity and European resolve. As Baltic and Eastern European NATO members watched closely, allied air forces maintained heightened readiness and conducted continuous surveillance and patrols to deter potential repeat incursions. NATO officials reiterated that the Alliance would respond to any aggression in a determined, coordinated manner, while partners emphasized the need to balance deterrence with diplomatic efforts to prevent a wider escalation. The Kremlin has not commented on the latest incidents, and Moscow has repeatedly denied direct intent to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank, asserting that its actions are defensive or routine military activities.

Looking ahead, defense ministers and intelligence officials are expected to review Baltic and eastern flank posture, including air and border security, radar coverage, and aerial intercept cooperation. The incidents come at a time of intensified Western scrutiny of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine and its broader geopolitical ambitions. For Ukraine, the immediate goal remains sustaining essential services and civilian protection while pressing for stronger, more capable defense systems from its partners. For NATO and its members, the priority is to deter further escalation through transparent, united actions and a calibrated mix of readiness, diplomacy, and pressure that signals resolve without provoking a larger conflagration.