Poll puts Burnham ahead of Starmer as Labour conference opens amid upheaval

A new Opinium poll shows Andy Burnham leading Labour leader Keir Starmer by 50 points in leadership preference as Labour prepares for its annual conference in Liverpool. Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is not yet an MP, but party insiders say he would be a formidable challenger if a formal contest occurred. The same survey places Burnham ahead on the broader question of who voters would trust more with the country, while Starmer lags, highlighting a mood that is unsettled at the outset of the gathering. Burnham also has a plus 10 net approval rating in the poll, with Starmer on minus 40, underscoring a dramatic mood shift as the party seeks to reset after recent upheaval.

Starmer arrived in Liverpool hand in hand with his wife Victoria, greeting delegates as the party faces a conference viewed by some as a crucible for its future direction. Burnham is viewed by supporters as the better bet to win back traditional, working class voters who have drifted toward Reform UK and Nigel Farage. Allies of Burnham say many Labour MPs would prefer him to lead the party rather than Starmer, arguing that his northern base and perceived charisma could appeal to voters who feel left behind. Yet Burnham faces skepticism from others who question whether he would be able to mount a credible challenge given that he is not yet a member of parliament. The gathering is shadowed by internal friction over Starmer’s plan for digital ID cards to tackle the small boats crisis and by debate over the party position on Gaza and the Palestinian statehood question. The conference also comes as Labour endures a long list of upheavals, including the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and the sacking of Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the United States, along with questions surrounding Morgan McSweeney and the use of donations to fund Labour Together.

In the days ahead, attention will focus on who will succeed Rayner as deputy leader, with ex-Commons Leader Lucy Powell competing against Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. Powell is seen by some allies of Burnham and Ed Miliband as a preferred option within the party, while Phillipson is the government’s favored candidate for the role. London Mayor Sadiq Khan also reportedly weighs a potential bid, and former environment secretary Miliband is said to still harbour leadership ambitions, though his current portfolio remains in focus. The party is navigating not only internal leadership chatter but also policy tensions that could influence the electoral message, including the timing and content of the autumn Budget.

Despite the leadership chatter, Burnham trails Farage on the question of who would make the best prime minister. The Opinium poll shows Burnham at about 24 percent versus Farage at 31 percent on that head-to-head measure, a reminder that fielding a credible alternative to the current government remains a substantial hurdle for Labour as it seeks to present a unifying and economically convincing platform.

Starmer used a stop at the Liverpool Echo offices to frame Labour as the party for national renewal, criticizing Reform for advocating deportations and arguing that many migrants contribute to public services and everyday life. He urged a balanced, inclusive approach to immigration and emphasized the need for unity and renewal as a response to the country’s current challenges. Farage, in turn, accused Starmer of desperation, arguing that the Labour leader's rhetoric distracts from policy and governance and that his language risks inflaming divisions rather than solving problems.

Analysts caution that Labour's immediate political fate will hinge on the Chancellor’s November Budget, which could reshape the party’s economic message and influence early momentum in the leadership contest. Budget discussions are expected to define the political climate as Labour seeks to present a credible long-term economic plan while addressing voters' concerns about public services, cost of living, and growth.

On housing policy, Housing Secretary Steve Reed announced a plan to deliver a new generation of towns that could add up to 300,000 homes, in a bid to show a long-term growth strategy alongside the party s short term political messaging. Sites cited include Heyford Park in Oxfordshire, Tempsford in Bedfordshire, and South Bank in Leeds as part of a broader push to expand housing supply and reposition Labour on the national growth agenda.