Poll shows limited support among Maduro opponents for U.S. military action in Venezuela

A new Panterra poll shows only about 10 percent of Venezuelans who oppose the Maduro government want U.S. military intervention to remove him from power. The survey interviewed 1,200 Venezuelans face-to-face, with 30 percent identifying as Chavistas, 45 percent supporting the opposition and 25 percent not identifying with either camp. Among the 70 percent who are non-Chavistas, three in 10 say they want the United States to arrest Nicolás Maduro for alleged ties to drug cartels Tren de Aragua (TdA) and Cartel de los Soles.

The poll underscores a cautious or even fearful mood toward any foreign-led upheaval. It also found that 15 percent of non-Chavistas either want the U.S. to remain neutral or to coordinate with Maduro to lift sanctions in exchange for mass deportations back to Venezuela and an uptick in oil imports. In a social media post, Trump warned: "Be warned – if you are transporting drugs that can kill Americans, we are hunting you!" The poll notes that 58 percent of non-Chavistas are more hopeful after the United States placed a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest—the largest reward ever offered in such a case.

63 percent of Venezuelans, including both Chavistas and non-Chavistas, do not consider Maduro to be the legitimate president. The study also shows a split on the legitimacy question within the non-Chavista group, with a sizeable portion remaining skeptical of the electoral process in Venezuela. The United States does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader but has not publicly outlined a detailed plan for a replacement government if Maduro were ousted. Washington has signaled a tougher posture by positioning eight Navy warships in the Caribbean off Venezuela.

Separately, U.S. officials have described recent actions against suspected drug trafficking networks. Drone images on September 2 show a U.S. strike that killed 11 people aboard a drug-ship believed to be headed toward the United States. A second strike was announced on September 15 against a vessel described by the administration as operated by narcoterrorists affiliated with TdA and carrying cocaine and fentanyl entries toward the U.S. The administration has not characterized these actions as regime change but has argued they target illicit networks rather than a government.

Some Venezuelan-Americans contacted by the Daily Mail expressed skepticism about the buildup, with one 22-year-old who fled to Boston in 2017 calling the displays of force “performative.” Others see potential, including Daniel Di Martino of the Manhattan Institute, who told the outlet that the United States has the military assets to neutralize elements of the Venezuelan military and enable the Venezuelan people to determine their own future. (IMAGE)

The U.S. government’s posture comes as Washington has repeatedly tied sanctions and incentives to Maduro’s arrest or departure, while the Maduro government portrays the moves as foreign meddling. The poll’s authors caution that respondents may have been reluctant to share dissenting views due to fear of government repercussions, and they emphasize that the data reflect attitudes at a moment of heightened U.S. naval activity near Venezuela. The dynamic remains fluid as the region watches a carefully calibrated power equation unfold between Caracas and Washington.