Russia Helping China Prepare for Taiwan Invasion, Analysis Finds

An analysis by the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based defense and security forum, of roughly 800 pages of leaked Russian documents suggests Moscow is assisting China in preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan. The documents, attributed to the Black Moon hacktivist group, include contracts and equipment lists that indicate Russian suppliers have begun outlining products to Beijing, though they do not contain direct evidence that China has paid or received any items.

According to the analysis, the documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations and payment and delivery timelines for equipment including high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. They indicate that Russia has begun work to supply the items, but do not show direct evidence that Beijing has paid or received components. The authors caution that while the materials point to a potential deal, they do not prove an operational plan or a completed shipment.

Analysts emphasize that the most significant value of the purported arrangement may lie in training and command-and-control procedures for parachute forces, where Russia has long-standing combat experience that China lacks. Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former Ukrainian defense official who contributed to the analysis, said the collaboration could accelerate China’s airborne program by roughly 10 to 15 years. Jack Watling, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, added that Moscow appears to be pursuing a role as a military supplier to Beijing while also funding part of China’s defense modernization.

The documents describe a framework beginning with an initial agreement dated in 2021 and extended through 2024, with timelines for payments and delivery. Stage one involved analysis of technical specifications and software modifications; stage two covered equipment manufacturing and training in China. The deal, if it proceeds, would provide an airborne battalion’s worth of equipment, including 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, and a set of command and observation vehicles, at a total listed cost of more than $210 million. Beijing allegedly sought to integrate Chinese communications systems and ammunition into the equipment.

Beijing has signaled ambitions to modernize its armed forces under President Xi Jinping with the goal of transforming the PLA into a world-class force by 2050. While the documents do not name Taiwan explicitly, analysts say access to Russian equipment and strategic training could help China improve its ability to conduct an amphibious or airborne operation should Beijing choose to act against Taipei. Several U.S. officials have suggested that Chinese leaders have ordered the military to be prepared for potential invasion as early as 2027, though Beijing maintains it seeks peaceful reunification and has not renounced the use of force.

The analysis notes that China’s own airborne school remains relatively young, and Russia’s experience could fill gaps in doctrine, training, and integration with air and maritime assets. The leaders of Russia and China publicly emphasize cooperation, and the alliance of Moscow and Beijing has grown in parallel with the United States’ emphasis on deterring both nations. Still, the documents do not provide confirmation that Beijing has paid or received any equipment, and Moscow did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

NATO officials have warned of the broader geopolitical implications of China’s military expansion. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and other Western officials have described a rapid buildup that could influence regional security and force projections for the United States and allied nations. In recent remarks ahead of a major alliance gathering, NATO leaders highlighted China’s growing defense-industrial capacity and the strategic considerations that would come with any attempt to challenge Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that Beijing regards as a part of its territory. While observers say such a scenario remains uncertain, the possibility has fueled concern about escalatory dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

The Kremlin, the Chinese government, and the Taiwanese and Russian defense ministries did not respond to requests for comment. The analysis presented by RUIS is based on leaked Russian documents reported by a London-based defense forum and reflects one set of assessments about possible Russian-Chinese defense collaboration. It does not establish an operational plan, a payment trail, or direct evidence of shipments, but it underscores how closely Moscow and Beijing have discussed expanding their military interoperability and training capacities as competition with Washington intensifies.