Russia helps China prepare for Taiwan invasion, analysis finds

A London-based defense and security forum says leaked Russian documents indicate Moscow is helping China prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) analyzed roughly 800 pages of materials associated with a group known as Black Moon, which published contracts and equipment lists that purportedly outline Moscow's support for Beijing's armed forces. While the authors caution that the materials do not provide direct evidence that China has paid or received any equipment, they say the mix of completed and draft documents points to ongoing work on items that could bolster Beijing's capabilities.

RUSI says the documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations and include payment and delivery timelines for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. The material appears to outline a package of equipment and training intended to bolster China’s airborne and airborne-supported operations. The presence of both completed pages and draft lines suggests a staged process, rather than a single, finalized sale. The analysis notes that the documents do not mention Taiwan explicitly, but contend that the arrangements could help China gain advanced parachuting capabilities that would be necessary to mount an invasion, potentially speeding up a timeline. The authors add that Moscow’s involvement could also be seen as a way to position Russia as a military supplier to China and to fund its own war in Ukraine.

Analysts emphasize that Russia’s aim appears to be broader than a one-off weapons sale. Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling have argued that the greatest value of the deal lies in the training and procedures for command and control of parachute forces, drawing on Russia’s combat experience. They suggest Moscow may seek to transfer not only hardware but the expertise to operate it, which could help speed up China’s airborne program by roughly a decade to 15 years. The analysts also warn that Moscow might hope to drive Beijing into a confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, using the flare-up as a means to distract the United States from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

Details in the documents show a package designed for a Chinese airborne battalion, including 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, and associated command and observation vehicles. Be prepared to use Chinese communications systems and ammunition, the materials indicate. The total price is listed at more than $210 million, with timelines for payment and delivery laid out in the documents dating from an initial agreement in April 2021. The analysis notes stages one and two—analysis of technical specifications, software modifications, and equipment manufacturing—appear to have been completed by September 2024, and the arrangement includes training in China and the ability to infiltrate by special forces.

The broader context includes China’s stated goal of modernizing its armed forces toward a “world-class” standard by 2050, while some Western officials have warned that a large, rapidly expanding Chinese military could raise the risk of a Taiwan contingency. In recent months, NATO leaders have underscored concerns about China’s defense buildup and the potential implications for regional and European security. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cited a rise in Chinese defense capabilities and noted that a smaller set of Chinese firms now ranks among the world’s top defense contractors, signaling a global shift in defense capabilities that defense allies must monitor closely. Rutte also warned that if Beijing were to act against Taiwan, it could draw Russia into a broader confrontation.

Response from Moscow, Beijing, and their respective defense ministries was not available for comment. The analysis by RUSI relies on leaked materials associated with the Black Moon group, and experts caution that the veracity and completeness of the files cannot be independently verified. Still, the report has sparked renewed debate about the extent of outside support for China’s modernization program and the strategic implications of a more capable airborne force in potential Taiwan scenarios.

While the documents illuminate a possible pathway for Moscow to influence China’s military development, observers emphasize that it remains unclear whether Beijing intends to invade Taiwan or when such a move might occur. U.S. and allied officials have voiced warnings about timelines that could see a cross-strait crisis as early as the late 2020s, but official assessments differ and are sensitive to rapidly evolving strategic calculations. In this evolving context, analysts say even leaked materials like these can influence perceptions and decision-making, even if their exact provenance or accuracy cannot be fully ascertained.