Russian incursions into NATO airspace reach unprecedented scale, prompting questions about Kremlin aims

Russian forays into NATO airspace have reached an unprecedented scale this month, prompting allied officials to question Moscow's objectives and the alliance's readiness to respond to a direct attack. While Russia has long pressed near NATO borders, the latest episodes have carried new weight since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the broader strike on Western security commitments.

The most dramatic development came on Sept. 10, when authorities say roughly 20 Russian drones flew deep into Polish territory, prompting a scramble of NATO jets and a rapid response to defend airspace along the alliance’s eastern flank. Poland activated a NATO mechanism that allows any member to request a full alliance discussion if its territorial integrity or security is threatened, and Polish authorities signaled a willingness to defend its airspace with force if necessary. Moscow denied targeting Poland, and Belarus claimed the drones’ signals were jammed by Ukraine. Still, European leaders have treated the episode as a deliberate provocation and a test of NATO unity.

Estonia reported that Russian fighter jets briefly crossed into its airspace last week and remained for about 12 minutes, an incursion its foreign minister called unprecedently brazen. Moscow denied that the breach occurred, as it has in past incidents. Romania and Latvia also reported single Russian drone incursions this month, according to the notes accompanying the cluster summary.

Analysts connect the uptick to a broader calculus in Moscow as it steadies gains on the battlefield in Ukraine while signaling that it could respond to Western pressure with riskier moves near NATO borders. Some view the intrusions as coercive signaling aimed at discouraging robust security guarantees to Kyiv, including possible deployments of alliance troops to Ukraine as part of any peace strategy. “Maybe their calculation was that now the European countries have to send something additionally to Estonia regarding the air defense assets, and that means they cannot send it to Ukraine,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. “Russia is trying to tear us out from Ukraine.”

Mark Galeotti, a Russian politics expert who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, described the intrusions as part of a broader effort to signal strength and test alliance solidarity. “This is Moscow trying to say, ‘Just look how dangerous things already are and how dangerous they could get.’” He argued the goal is to complicate NATO’s calculations rather than to win a conventional victory. Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, suggested Moscow might be trying to plant a corrosive question in allies’ minds: whether others will come to Baltic defense if a member is attacked. “Russia does not need to defeat NATO militarily if it can defeat it politically,” Lucas wrote, noting that perceived weakness could erode alliance cohesion.

Some observers have warned that the United States plays a pivotal role in deterring or escalating responses. Max Bergmann, head of Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the reaction to the incursions appeared underwhelming and could inform Moscow’s calculus. “What we are seeing is the United States under President Trump doesn’t feel responsible for European security, and that will be quite enlightening to the Russians. They may escalate even more.” Bergmann added that Washington’s posture could influence whether NATO members feel compelled to raise the level of their own commitments.

The incident in Poland prompted NATO to bolster air defenses along its eastern flank and to hold discussions among member governments about the alliance’s response options. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has been clear that Warsaw would shoot down any object that intrudes its territory, and NATO officials have cautioned that decisions to engage would depend on available intelligence about the threat posed by the aircraft. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte indicated that responses would hinge on threat assessment and confirmed that member states would consult when necessary. In Washington, then-president-elect Donald Trump signaled a tougher stance, affirming that NATO should shoot down intruding Russian aircraft if the threat is credible, while stopping short of promising U.S. military intervention in every case.

The events raise questions about whether Moscow is testing the alliance’s ability to deter and respond to aggression, or whether it is attempting to draw attention away from battlefield realities in Ukraine. Russia has previously warned that it would respond to NATO deployment near its borders and has warned Kyiv against using Western-supplied longer-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia. The current wave of incidents suggests Moscow wants to reveal perceived gaps in alliance cohesion, even as the war in Ukraine persists and NATO reassesses risk and readiness in a shifting security environment.