Russia's 'Zapad 2025' drills showcase nuclear-capable forces, escalate tensions with NATO

Russia and Belarus conducted sweeping military exercises that displayed both conventional and nuclear-capable forces and prompted NATO to bolster air defenses on its eastern flank after a swarm of Russian drones entered Polish airspace in what Warsaw described as a deliberate provocation.

The long-planned drills, dubbed "Zapad 2025," included nuclear-capable strategic and tactical assets — bombers, warships and naval launches — thousands of troops and hundreds of combat vehicles simulating a joint response to an enemy attack. Belarusian and Russian officials said the maneuvers involved planning for the use of tactical nuclear weapons and the deployment of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, which Russia plans to station in Belarus later this year.

NATO leaders expressed alarm at the scope of the exercises and at a separate incident two days before the maneuvers began, when about 20 drones flew into Polish airspace. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incursion a "provocation" that "brings us all closer to open conflict, closer than ever since World War II." NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described the drone flights as "reckless" and announced a new initiative, "Eastern Sentry," aimed at strengthening air defenses in the eastern alliance states.

Rutte also highlighted what he described as a new strategic reality posed by Moscow's hypersonic missiles, saying they undermine any notion that more distant NATO members are less exposed than Russia's immediate neighbors. "Let’s agree that within this alliance of 32 countries, we all live on the eastern flank," he said in Brussels.

Russian and Belarusian officials provided a mixed account of command arrangements for the weapons. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said Belarus hosts several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons. At times he has said Minsk will control those weapons; Russian officials have stressed that Moscow will retain control. In December, while signing a security pact with Lukashenko, President Vladimir Putin said Russia would control the Oreshniks but would allow Belarus to select targets, adding that missiles used against targets closer to Belarus could carry a heavier payload.

Belarus' deputy defense minister, Pavel Muraveiko, said the drills included planning for tactical nuclear weapon use and for the deployment of the Oreshnik, but he did not give further details. Tactical nuclear weapons, unlike intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to destroy large urban areas, have a shorter range and are intended for battlefield use.

The Oreshnik, which Russia first used against Ukraine in November 2024 according to Moscow, has been described by Russian officials as capable of carrying multiple warheads that reenter at speeds up to Mach 10. Russian state media asserted the missile could reach an air base in Poland in about 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes. Moscow has said the weapon can carry conventional or nuclear warheads and has warned it could be used against countries that allow strikes on Russia from their territory.

There is no independent way to determine whether a given missile carries a conventional or nuclear warhead before impact. Putin said last month that Oreshnik production has begun and reaffirmed plans to deploy the missile to Belarus later this year.

The Zapad 2025 exercises spanned areas from Belarus to the Arctic, where naval assets practiced launches of nuclear-capable missiles, including the hypersonic Zircon. Russia released video footage showing long-range bombers and other assets conducting training missions.

Allied concerns about the drills are heightened by recent changes in Russian nuclear doctrine. Last year Putin outlined a revision that says any nation's conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power could be considered a joint attack, a change widely interpreted as lowering the threshold for nuclear use and as a deterrent against Western support for Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russian territory. The revised doctrine explicitly extends Moscow's nuclear umbrella to Belarus.

Security analysts and former Soviet-era military officials note parallels with Cold War deployments. Belarus was a forward base for Soviet intermediate-range missiles aimed at Europe, and several heavily reinforced storage sites built during the Soviet period remain in the country. Some analysts say a Russian presence of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus revives a forward posture that increases the potential reach of Russian systems toward the Baltics, Poland and central Europe.

"The weapons’ deployment closer to the borders with the West sends a signal even if there are no plans to use it," said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. A Minsk-based analyst, Alexander Alesin, said the presence of Russian tactical warheads in Belarus would make the country a "balcony looming over the West," reviving a Cold War-era threat geometry.

NATO members bordering Belarus — including Poland, Latvia and Lithuania — voiced particular alarm at the scale and character of the exercises. Officials said that drones had violated airspace not only over Poland but also over Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, underscoring concerns about Russia's willingness to use unmanned systems near allied territory.

The maneuvers and the drone incident come months after a high-profile summit between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska, which did not produce a breakthrough on Ukraine. The war in Ukraine, now in its third year, has continued despite diplomatic efforts and has repeatedly intersected with military demonstrations and arms deployments in neighboring states. Analysts said the combination of doctrinal changes, forward deployments and high-tempo exercises complicates European security and raises the risk of miscalculation.

NATO officials have not indicated they intend to respond with like-for-like deployments inside Belarus but have emphasized strengthening air and missile defenses and improving readiness along the eastern flank. The "Eastern Sentry" initiative announced by Rutte aims to bolster allied detection and interception capabilities in the region.

Moscow framed the exercises as defensive and long planned, warning the West against sending foreign troops into Ukraine. Russian officials said the drills simulated responses to an enemy attack and included planning for contingencies that Moscow says NATO and its partners have been preparing. Belarusian officials reiterated that the drills were legitimate training activities designed to test interoperability and deterrence.

The exercises wrap up as questions remain about the disposition and command of tactical nuclear assets in Belarus and about how the deployment of new weapons such as the Oreshnik will alter the strategic balance in Europe. NATO's reinforcement of air defenses and public warnings from allied capitals are likely to continue as Moscow and Minsk complete the drills and as Russia moves ahead with new missile production and deployment plans.