Senedd poll a Labour wake-up call in Wales as Plaid and Reform surge

A new Senedd poll published this week shows Labour support in Wales at 14%, well behind Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform on 29%, according to a survey conducted by ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University. The results, viewed as a potential turning point for Welsh politics, come ahead of next year’s Senedd elections and amid growing calls for clear direction from the UK and Welsh Labour leaderships.

Mick Antoniw, a former Welsh government minister, called the figures a wake-up call for Labour in Wales and at Westminster. "We have to recognise the things that we have to do to be real Labour. What we really do need, particularly at a UK level I think, is a clear vision - a vision of hope, a vision of change," he told Politics Wales. Asked whether Keir Starmer and the UK government understood the scale of the challenge in Wales, Antoniw said, "I think they are beginning to get it" and noted the UK Labour government was doing "lots of really good things" but those efforts were being "masked by some of the mistakes that were made really early on".

A Welsh Labour grandee described the poll as the party’s most damaging setback in memory, saying the mood among Labour MPs and members was "grim" and that Hefin David’s recent death had compounded the strain. "The tide has turned against us... it feels like [First Minister Eluned Morgan] is swimming against the tide and she’s exhausting herself and it’s difficult to watch. It feels like an end of a chapter," the source said, adding that damaged relationships within the group lingered and that leadership tensions from the previous year continued to haunt the party. They also cited internal weariness as MPs head toward May elections. PA Media

The polling expert Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University, said part of Labour’s difficulty was a narrative that if voters want to stop Reform they should back Plaid Cymru. He warned that many former Labour supporters appeared poised to vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026. A Labour grandee agreed that the drop in Welsh support reflected frustrations with London Labour, including perceived Treasury austerity. "If Eluned wasn’t there, it would be down the hill," they said, underscoring the sense that the Welsh administration’s distance from the UK government would need to be used to Labour’s advantage.

A senior Welsh Labour MP said the UK leadership’s challenges were a "massive issue" for the party in Wales and that the national party was in a "general mess." Yet looking ahead to May’s election, they insisted the party could still win with a sharper message, a fixed campaign, and a positive, strong plan for Wales. "We know what we’re up against, so it almost makes it easier," they said, urging a unified push that aligns Welsh promises with Westminster action. A UK Labour source defended the Westminster government’s track record in Wales, pointing to extra funding for rail projects and arguing that those responsible for past mistakes should own up to the governing record of the last 26 years.

Eluned Morgan has publicly tried to distance Welsh Labour from the UK Labour government, promoting what she calls a "Red Welsh Way" to set out a distinct Welsh policy path. Behind the scenes, Morgan reportedly reshuffled her team over the summer, replacing former MP Wayne David as her top adviser, a move the Welsh Labour source said had begun to re-energise the government’s focus. Morgan’s approach comes as several Welsh Labour MPs prepare to stand down at the May election, a reality the party sees as a test of its ability to refresh leadership while carrying a long-running governance project in Wales.

On Friday Jeremy Miles, Wales’ Health Secretary, became the 14th sitting Labour MS to announce he would not stand again at May’s election. Miles had been involved in the Welsh government’s health strategy during the pandemic and in post-pandemic reform efforts; his decision came amid a wider sense of leadership churn within Welsh Labour as the party faces its biggest electoral challenge in decades. In response to the poll and Miles’s announcement, a UK Labour source reiterated that the party is focused on a positive platform for Wales and on demonstrating that Westminster policies are delivering tangible improvements for people in Wales and across the UK. The party emphasised that rail funding and economic investment would be part of the Welsh Labour message if elected.

The poll results—comparing Labour with Plaid Cymru and Reform—underscore the pressure on Welsh Labour to win back voters who have grown wary of both London policy and the handling of devolved government. Analysts say the May result could redefine Labour’s Welsh strategy for years to come, especially as the party seeks to show it can deliver on both national and regional agendas. The BBC and other outlets noted the complicating factor of a high-profile leadership contest and ongoing tensions within Wales’ Labour ranks, which could influence turnout and tactical voting as elections approach.