Starmer faces headwinds as poll forecasts Reform surge at Labour conference

Keir Starmer opened the Labour Party conference in Liverpool amid a surge of negative polling and intensifying questions about the party’s direction, with a separate wave of data suggesting Reform UK could win a sweeping victory at the next general election. More in Common’s latest projection, using a 20,000-person sample and a multi-model approach known as MRP, estimated that Nigel Farage’s insurgent movement would win 373 seats if an election were held today. Labour would be reduced to about 90 MPs, far from its current tally near 400, and the Conservatives would fall to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. Starmer, pressed on the prospects, told The Sunday Times that he believed Labour could still “pull this round.”

Ipsos Mori, in a separate poll, placed Sir Keir’s personal rating at the lowest level recorded for a prime minister since comparable records began in 1977, with the net score sinking to minus 66. The figure surpassed the minus 59 net ratings that had marked the declines of both Rishi Sunak and John Major at various points, underscoring how far Starmer’s personal mandate has fallen in recent months. Yet the Labour leader sought to project reassurance, arguing that the party must stay united and focused on the election when the country needs a plan the most. “I think we can pull this round,” he told The Sunday Times, signaling that he intends to frame the conference as a turning point rather than a terminal moment for Labour.

Amid ongoing whispers that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could seek a Westminster return to challenge Starmer, the Labour leader warned against inward-looking reflexes. “It is the fight of our times and we’ve all got to be in it together,” he said. “We don’t have time for introspection, we don’t have time for navel-gazing. You’ll always get a bit of that at a Labour Party conference, but that is not going to solve the problems that face this country.”

More in Common’s survey relies on a national sample and the so-called MRP technique, which maps voter characteristics to produce constituency-level estimates. The model’s results suggested that Farage could reach No 10 with a 96-seat majority, leaving Labour stuck on roughly 90 seats and the Conservatives’ footing weakened to a fourth-placed position behind the Liberal Democrats. The findings, based on surveys conducted between August 8 and September 15, painted a more dramatic scenario than early YouGov projections last week that had Reform as the largest party but still just short of a majority. The two polls reinforce a message widely heard at conference, that the electoral dynamic appears to be tilting away from Labour and toward Reform, at least in the short term.

In parallel, More in Common analyzed Labour’s record in government and found that voters are more attuned to the party’s failures than to its policy successes. Some 62 percent of respondents said Labour should concentrate on presenting its own plans for government, while 20 percent favored a sharper critique of Reform’s platform. The polling also highlighted that internal setbacks—such as the exits of Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson—have resonated with voters more than the party’s notable achievements in government. The poll’s takeaway for Labour is clear: to stem the drift toward Reform, the party must demonstrate credible governance and deliverables that translate into people’s daily lives.

In terms of policy moves, Labour signaled a more aggressive push on housing, with three new towns slated to begin construction before the next election as a milestone pledge from Housing Secretary Steve Reed. The sites named as most promising for early work are Tempsford in Bedfordshire, Leeds South Bank, and Crews Hill in north London. While plans for a total of 12 new towns are being advanced, the three listed are framed as the early testing ground for a broader strategy to ease housing shortages and revitalize urban development. The party argues that such projects could help anchor Labour’s economic narrative and appeal to voters who have drifted toward Reform on economic and security grounds.

On migration and borders, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood sought to strike a balance between openness and control. In remarks reported by The Sun on Sunday, she acknowledged that failing to secure the borders would deepen divisions in the country and pledged tougher rules for people entitled to be in the UK. She signaled an intention to tighten rules around indefinite leave to remain, the status that allows migrants to settle without visa renewals, arguing that ILR should reflect broader contributions to the community, not just the job a person holds. Mahmood added that ministers are examining how ILR could be linked to broader civic contributions to communities, not solely employment. She also indicated that reforms to human rights laws would be pursued by Christmas to facilitate deportations of illegal migrants and to ensure that the European Convention on Human Rights and other treaties are applied in a manner consistent with national interests. On the broader security agenda, she warned that the far right is on the rise and stressed that securing the border is fundamental to “holding the country together.”

Starmer arrived at the conference yesterday with his wife Victoria, a detail that underscores the personal dimension of the leadership challenge he faces as Labour seeks to reconnect with voters after a period of friction and factional tension. The conference, already marked by intense media scrutiny and rising expectations from Reform’s supporters, will test whether Starmer can translate the party’s policy proposals into a credible, electorally viable alternative for voters who appear increasingly attracted to Reform’s populist appeal.

The poll data come amid broader political jitters in the United Kingdom, where party leadership battles and a volatile electoral mood have kept pollsters busy and opposition leaders under intense scrutiny. While Labour has underscored its policy platform—ranging from housing to migration reform—the numbers suggest that the party’s efforts to project competence and governance are not yet resonating with a broad swath of voters in the way the leadership had hoped. The tension between delivering tangible policy wins and turning public sentiment around remains a central hurdle ahead of the next general election.

As the conference unfolds, Labour will be watching closely how its message lands with voters who are weighing cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, and national security concerns against the appeal of Reform’s more adversarial, anti-establishment messaging. The question for Starmer is whether he can convert the momentum from party unity and policy specificity into a convincing path back to government, or whether Reform’s momentum will intensify the sense among voters that a seismic political shift is already underway. The coming days will reveal how much of the current polling represents a temporary reaction to campaign dynamics and how much signals a lasting realignment in the UK’s political landscape.