Study finds North Korea supplied Russia up to $9.8B in arms as Moscow provides limited aid

A Friedrich Naumann Foundation study concludes that since 2023, North Korea has delivered arms to Russia valued at between 5.6 and 9.8 billion USD to support Russia's war in Ukraine, while Moscow's reciprocal aid to Pyongyang has been limited to food, oil, and air-defense systems with a maximum reported value of about 1.19 billion USD. There is no indication of foreign currency flowing into North Korea as part of the arrangement, and the analysis suggests the transfer of technology or broader economic benefits has been minimal.

Shipments from North Korea include millions of artillery shells, mortar rounds, and rockets, in addition to hundreds of artillery pieces and launchers, short-range ballistic missiles, and the deployment of roughly 15,000 North Korean soldiers. The report notes that North Korea supplied weapons since 2023 to help sustain Russia's military operations, while Moscow's aid appears tailored more toward sustaining Pyongyang than boosting its technological or economic trajectory.

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The study describes a relationship in which Moscow may be deliberately slow to reciprocate, potentially keeping Pyongyang on a longer leash to cultivate dependence. Analysts highlight that the alliance could persist to allow Pyongyang to test weapon systems under real battlefield conditions, while helping North Korea mitigate its international isolation by aligning with a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

Earlier this year, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, publicly raised concerns that Russia is assisting North Korea in modernizing its nuclear weapons program, underscoring Western worries about how the partnership could influence global security dynamics.

Western leaders have kept the alliance under scrutiny. United States President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to reference the Beijing-Beijing meeting among Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un during the Victory Day events, while NATO's secretary-general and European leaders have emphasized unity against perceived security challenges posed by the trilateral alignment of China, Russia, and North Korea. At the Prague Defence Summit in 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the West holds an advantage in unity and resolve in confronting the potential threats posed by that three-way convergence.

Overall, the foundation's analysis portrays an asymmetrical exchange within the Russia–North Korea partnership, raising questions about the long-term strategic returns for Pyongyang as Moscow weighs its options in a protracted conflict and broader regional diplomacy.