Tactical voting could cost Reform majority as Farage could seize power, analysis finds

A new analysis released on Sept. 24, 2025, shows that a broad tactical-voting push in next year’s general election could deprive Reform of a parliamentary majority by more than 60 seats, potentially reshaping the path to power in Britain.

If voters were to cast ballots for their first-choice party tomorrow, Nigel Farage would be poised to lead a majority government with 368 MPs. But the same modelling indicates that if voters instead supported the party best placed to block Reform in their local seat, Farage would lose 67 MPs. Reform would remain the largest party in the Commons, but it would still fall short of a majority by roughly two dozen seats, leaving the door open to a coalition or a looser confidence-and-supply arrangement. The analysis, from Electoral Calculus, underscores how tactical voting could alter the dynamics of the next parliamentary contest and the prospective shape of government.

The study also examines how voters who oppose Reform across the political spectrum might coordinate. It finds that significant numbers of progressive voters who do not intend to back Labour as a first choice are willing to back Keir Starmer’s party to block Reform. Conversely, a sizable share of Labour supporters in Conservative-held seats in England would back the Conservatives to prevent Reform from gaining ground. The analysis suggests that tactical voting could lift Labour’s seat count by more than 40 and add about 30 to the Tories, though the Liberal Democrats, even with those gains, would likely remain the fourth party in the Commons under this more generous projection.

However, the projections also highlight a potential paradox: Jeremy Corbyn and his allies could inadvertently facilitate Farage’s ascent. The analysis notes that while left-leaning Greens and moderate Lib Dems appear prepared to vote tactically to stop Reform, supporters of Corbyn’s Your Party would not participate in the same strategic calculus, reducing a key anti-Reform bloc’s effectiveness in some districts. Polls cited in the piece show that up to 10% of voters could be considering backing Your Party, though events surrounding the party have since been marked by infighting and internal divisions.

The Times quoted Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter saying Farage’s party could still be leading in the polls and on track to be the largest party, though momentum through the campaign remains unpredictable. The report also notes that slogans such as Only Labour can stop Reform could become common on the campaign trail as Labour tries to consolidate the centre-left vote behind its candidates. Yet the continuing fragmentation of the left and the emergence of Your Party remain a significant handicap for Labour’s prospects of unseating Reform on a single-to-one basis.

In political theater surrounding the report, Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey used his party conference to cast the Lib Dems as the main anti-Farage vehicle, warning of a global trend toward what he called “the forces of darkness.” Davey pitched his party as the critical opposition to Reform, arguing the choice in the ballot would come down to the Lib Dems versus Farage. Farage responded during an interview on LBC, downplaying Davey’s rhetoric and characterizing him as obsessively focused on Farage rather than laying out a constructive platform for the country.

The analysis also casts light on internal dynamics in UK politics. It notes a rift within Labour, highlighted last week when Zarah Sultana publicly accused Corbyn and allies of running a sexist faction. Corbyn and Sultana have since sought to heal the division, though the episode underscores the volatility of the party’s broader coalition as voters weigh tactical options against policy alignment.

The report’s broader takeaway is that tactical voting, if broadly adopted, could reshape the parliamentary arithmetic in ways that benefit or hinder Reform depending on how voters weigh the risk of a Farage-led administration versus the likelihood of a Labour-led government capable of resisting Reform’s gains. While the Conservatives could gain seats in some tactical scenarios, the path to power for Farage remains contingent on coalitional or agreement-based support, given Reform’s potential to stay as the largest single party but short of a majority.

The Times’ coverage of the analysis also underscores the enduring volatility of British politics as parties recalibrate strategies ahead of the vote. Analysts cautioned that even with tactical voting, outcomes would hinge on local contests, candidate quality, and the evolving positions of smaller parties, including Your Party and the Lib Dems. The electorate faces a pivotal choice about whether strategic voting can realign the House of Commons in a way that prevents a Farage-led government or whether such a government could still emerge through alliances.

As campaigns proceed, voters and party strategists alike will be watching for shifts in cross-party backing and the evolving appeal of Your Party. The Electoral Calculus model, while informative, reflects a particular set of assumptions about how voters might respond in real time to campaign messages and local conditions across thousands of constituencies. The ongoing dialog among Labour, Reform, the Lib Dems, and other parties will likely influence how, or whether, tactical voting takes hold in different districts as the election approaches.